2012 Draft Small Forward Palooza

Before we begin, I’d like you to understand the Rankings. It’s based on PRAWS40 of their 2011 and 2010 seasons. I discount ‘training years so that a bad first year or won’t corrupt their score. Some players take longer to learn the ropes.

The Average PRAWS40 (high usage) for this NCAA ’11 is 6. (Or more accurately, 5.4)

To keep it in perspective, Kenneth Faried in 2010 was 13.4.

Kawhi Leanord was a 9

Klay Thompson was a 6.7

I will probably post up the raw data if I think it’s useful. But I’m pretty sure everyone has their own data dumps.

Name 2011PRAWS40 2010PRAWS40 POS 2011FT% 2010FT% 2012PRAWS40 RANK
. Ken Horton 10.38 10.63 3.50 80.20 86.90 10.51 1
. Jae Crowder 11.38 9.03 3.50 73.50 61.60 10.21 2
. Devon Collier 9.48 NA 3.50 63.00 NA 9.48 3
. Branden Dawson 9.09 NA 3.00 59.40 NA 9.09 4
. Otto Porter 8.74 NA 3.00 70.20 NA 8.74 5
. Dominique Sutton 8.69 NA 3.00 66.40 NA 8.69 6
. Tony Mitchell 8.13 9.09 3.50 67.70 65.80 8.61 7
. Wendell McKines 8.48 NA 3.50 76.00 NA 8.48 8
. Chris Johnson 8.79 7.79 3.00 84.80 83.00 8.29 9
. Will Yeguete 8.28 NA 3.50 35.90 NA 8.28 10
. Deshaun Thomas 8.13 NA 3.50 74.80 NA 8.13 11
. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 7.74 NA 3.00 74.50 NA 7.74 12
. Travis Wear 7.68 NA 3.50 79.10 NA 7.68 13
. Jeffery Taylor 7.54 NA 3.00 60.50 NA 7.54 14
. Reggie Bullock 7.34 NA 3.00 72.70 NA 7.34 15
. Elias Harris 8.28 6.38 3.50 67.20 77.20 7.33 16
. John Shurna 7.78 6.78 3.50 75.30 70.70 7.28 17
. Terrence Jones 7.68 6.88 3.50 62.70 64.60 7.28 18
. Solomon Hill 8.09 6.04 3.00 72.40 78.00 7.07 19
. Lamar Patterson 7.04 NA 3.00 77.10 NA 7.04 20
. Robbie Hummel 6.98 NA 3.50 82.50 NA 6.98 21
. Travis McKie 6.09 7.84 3.00 73.70 73.10 6.97 22
. Hollis Thompson 5.84 7.99 3.00 67.90 72.00 6.92 23
. Dominique Morrison 6.19 7.09 3.00 82.50 78.00 6.64 24
. Melvin Ejim 7.28 5.98 3.50 76.20 69.50 6.63 25
. Chace Stanback 6.43 6.83 3.50 82.00 80.30 6.63 26
. Bradford Burgess 4.89 8.29 3.00 79.30 75.30 6.59 27
. Rakim Sanders 6.58 NA 3.50 63.50 NA 6.58 28
. Dane Miller 8.09 4.79 3.00 71.60 54.90 6.44 29
. Moe Harkless 6.44 NA 3.00 67.60 NA 6.44 30

1. Ken Horton

. A A F F A A A A F F A F A F A A A A A A A A A
. Pts FG FGA FG% 2Pt 2PtA 2P% 3Pt 3PtA 3P% FTM FTA FT% Off Def TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs PFs RAWS40 PRAWS40
. AA AA 13.46 , 16.2 50.38 , 49.1 AA AA AA AA 3.29 , 6.1 33.11 , 31.3 AA 5.4 , 5.2 AA 3.22 , 3.2 AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA
.

The Chart above is an example of a Grading Scale. AA would be ‘above average.’ I’m working on making it more granular. It generally allows me to see at a glance what particular weaknesses a person has.
Ken Horton is pretty good. The only niggle is that he’s super streaky. He made twice as many 3 pointers as the average combo SF. He’s slightly below average in FG% as well. He’s not a light outs shooter but the guy does mix it up.

2. Jae Crowder
He’s just beastly. His main stat weakness is his offensive rebounds and blocks so he might serve better as a guard. He has 2x the average steals, half the turnovers, nearly twice the average 3pt rate and attempts. Generally, 1.5x better than your average sf. His stats as compared to sg/sf averages are also decent. He is 6 ‘ 4 though.

3. The 9s.
Neither Collier or Branden Dawson have three point shots. Collier has a 1.37x assist while Dawson has a 1.7 block/steal composite. Branden is slated for 2013 draft. Both are Fad Kids, although I quite like their scores. I might take collier early. Branden is a freshman too!

4. The Crazy 8s
Otto Porter has probably the second best freshman WS40, 2013 draft. Strange how branden didn’t just join the draft early eh? Prolly the lack of a shot.

Chris Johnson is a senior. 6 feet 3 but with a 6 ‘ 11 reach. Intriguing enough to create a chart.
Placeholder

If we place 3 point shooting ability as a priority, and then place their PRAWS40 next, and put in the Defensive stats, we get a better picture!

. Name avg POS avg 3Pt avg 3PtA avg 3P% avg PRAWS40 avg TOs avg PFs avg Off avg Def avg Asts avg Stls avg Blks
. Kim English 2.50 2.70 5.80 45.90 7.51 2.00 3 1.00 4.00 1.90 1.50 0.30
. Chace Stanback 3.50 3.40 7.40 45.50 6.43 1.60 3 1.60 4.70 1.80 1.40 0.50
. John Shurna 3.50 3.10 7.00 44.00 7.78 1.70 2 1.60 4.20 3.00 1.30 1.80
. Hollis Thompson 3.00 2.30 5.30 43.00 5.84 2.10 3 1.70 5.40 1.90 0.90 0.60
. Travis Wear 3.50 0.20 0.40 42.90 7.68 1.70 4 4.40 4.70 0.70 1.10 1.80
. Jeffery Taylor 3.00 2.30 5.40 42.30 7.54 2.70 2 2.70 4.30 2.10 1.60 0.60
. Dominique Morrison 3.00 1.80 4.20 42.30 6.19 1.80 3 1.10 3.60 1.80 0.90 0.40
. Elias Harris 3.50 1.20 2.90 41.40 8.28 2.40 3 3.00 8.80 1.70 1.30 1.00
. Lamar Patterson 3.00 1.60 3.80 41.00 7.04 2.40 3 2.30 5.10 5.10 1.40 0.50
. Allen Crabbe 3.00 2.90 7.20 39.90 6.29 1.80 2 1.10 5.60 2.50 0.60 0.70
. Chris Johnson 3.00 2.90 7.30 39.70 8.79 2.10 3 3.40 5.20 1.80 1.00 0.80
. Solomon Hill 3.00 1.30 3.40 38.90 8.09 3.00 3 2.70 6.90 3.20 1.30 0.60
. Robbie Hummel 3.50 2.60 6.70 38.30 6.98 1.10 3 2.00 7.00 2.30 0.80 1.50
. Reggie Bullock 3.00 2.90 7.70 38.20 7.34 1.60 2 2.60 5.40 2.20 1.00 0.30
. Travis McKie 3.00 1.20 3.30 37.90 6.09 2.80 3 2.60 5.50 1.30 1.00 0.70
. Dezmine Wells 3.00 1.00 2.50 37.70 5.84 2.00 3 1.80 5.70 1.70 1.10 0.40
. Tony Mitchell 3.50 1.20 3.35 37.50 8.13 3.10 4 2.80 8.80 2.20 1.25 2.95
. Terrence Ross 2.50 2.60 7.10 37.10 7.06 2.60 4 1.80 6.50 1.80 1.60 1.20
. Wesley Witherspoon 3.00 1.30 3.50 36.50 5.84 2.30 5 1.90 4.70 1.90 2.60 0.80
. Wendell McKines 3.50 1.70 4.90 35.20 8.48 2.40 3 4.00 8.70 1.80 0.90 0.40
. Quincy Miller 3.00 1.10 3.10 34.80 5.69 2.90 3 2.40 5.70 2.30 1.10 1.10
. Will Barton 2.50 1.20 3.50 34.60 9.91 2.40 2 2.30 6.80 3.30 1.60 0.80
. Jae Crowder 3.50 2.10 6.10 34.50 11.38 1.50 3 2.40 7.80 2.50 3.10 1.20
. Deshaun Thomas 3.50 1.60 4.70 34.50 8.13 1.50 2 3.30 3.60 1.10 1.40 1.30
. Kris Joseph 3.00 1.70 5.00 34.50 5.84 1.80 2 1.90 4.00 1.90 1.70 0.80
. Alex Young 3.00 2.20 6.60 33.90 6.44 3.00 3 2.20 5.00 2.60 1.90 1.20
. Jerry Brown 2.50 0.00 0.10 33.30 5.86 1.80 4 2.90 4.30 1.20 1.40 1.10
. Terrence Jones 3.50 0.60 1.80 32.70 7.68 2.20 3 3.40 6.30 1.80 1.80 2.40
. Jamar Samuels 3.50 0.90 2.80 32.70 5.88 2.70 5 4.10 5.90 2.10 1.40 1.10
. Ken Horton 3.50 1.90 6.10 31.30 10.38 2.20 3 3.20 7.20 2.00 2.40 1.70

Basically Shurna, Chris Johnson, HUmmel, Terrence Ross, Tony Mitchell, Terrence Jones all have individual problems despite a solid 3.
Barton, Crowder, Horton are all solid efficient defensive perimeter small forwards.

If I had to choose, I would pick Tony Mitchell from the B group as Turnovers are his major issue. Or go with Chris Johnson and ask him why his blocks are so low.

Wendell Mckines also deserves a gander.

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