Predicting the Lottery Team Picks.

I just finished creating Two Tables.

The first table is called “GM SmartyScore”

It has all the lottery teams and their respective GMs along with their respective draft choices.

I take those draft choices and create an average. On average, how far below the NBA average (WS40) do the lesser GMs pick?

Some of the Lottery GMs are so new that they can’t be added.

But here’s the preliminary results. Starting from worst to best.

  • Pacers, Bulls, Wizards are the worst. On the average of 10 draft choice, they regularly pick 1.5 Points Under the NBA average. The Pacers are actually the worst among the three. When they pick good, they pick okay. When they pick bad, it’s abysmally bad.
  • The Pistons are next. Not only are the Pistons almost as bad as the Wizards, their GM has been with them since 1999. Granted, he did help win a championship. He’s probably got the biggest leash known to man. “Oh, I made a draft mistake? Speak to my championship ring.”
    Still, he’s had over 27 draft choices. If we’re talking millions per draft choice, he’s cost the owner a pretty penny. He is the worst, longest tenured, Head Draft Guy.
  • For 10 draft choices, John Hammond has, on average, picked players 1 point below average. He’s had some really great ones. Oddly enough, he trades out the good ones, and the ones he keep turn out incredibly bad. In fact, as production goes, he has the most horriblest picks. It’s just that he has some foreign gems that counterbalance his score somewhat. -1 rating.
  • Daryl Morey does his own data, and yet he’s just as bad as the Bucks.
  • The Cavs don’t know how to pick if they don’t have the top 5 draft picks. It’s that simple. I don’t know how you have a -.33 when you have Kyrie Irving and only 4 draft choices.
  • The Kings, Raptors and the Nets are a wash. They average Bench player type choices.

The Warriors Blazers and Bobcats are too newly formed to have any historical data. Their GMs are barely 6 months old. Awww. Cootchey cootchey koo!

The full chart can be found here.

As time goes on I will be adding the Non-Lottery Top Tier Teams, like the Spurs, Heat, etc etc.

ΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩΩ

Okay, the second table is built off of the GM Smarty Score.

I collected all the draft workouts, and paired them with the GM Smarty Score. Depending on who’s closer to the GM Smarty Score and the youth of the draft pick, that becomes the predicted Pick.

  1. Hornets: PICK 1, PICK 10 (most likely trade pick#10)
    Anthony Davis, Lillard, Waiters
  2. Bobcats: PICK 2
    Beal
  3. Wizards: PICK 3
    Barnes – Because the Wizards don’t care about boxscore production.
  4. Cavaliers: PICK 4
    T. Robinson – Because the Cavs like picking people that have upsides but are slightly below average.
  5. Kings – PICK 5
    Henson – Henson is friends with one of the NBA Kings’ player. Technically it shouldnt be henson but some  average player that can play the 3 for the Kings. Sullinger maybe. I don’t know about this one. Henson is actually a pretty good pick.

  6.  Blazers – PICK 6, PICK 11
    Michael Kidd Gilchrist or Damien Lillard. I think they’ll pick Lillard up first. But it could aslo be MKG. Depending on how much leeway Rich Cho Neil Olshey has. (Update: lol. I got the GM wires crossed. Thank you, sportsfanatic613, for the correction)
  7. The Warriors – PICK 7
    just got Bogut (PF/C) but he’s injury prone. Just like everyone on that stupid team. If they are smart, they’ll get Will Barton. If they are getting what they need, they’ll get Zeller. I think they’ll be getting Zeller.
  8.  Raptors – PICK 8
    The data says Terrence Jones but my heart says they’ll pick up Lillard or MKG. Their choice depends on the Blazers. I don’t think they’ll get Waiters, despite the rumors.
  9. Detroit- PICK 9
    Drummond – The Kings in Pick 5 might get Drummond (that Kings GM guy loves to gamble). But I think he’ll fall to Detroit. Because Detroit loves underperforming picks. A lot.

  10. PICK 10 goes to the Hornets, PICK 11 goes to the Blazers.
    The best part is PICK 12 which goes to the Bucks. If the Bucks don’t fail the analysis, they should be picking a center. I doubt Zeller will fall to them so their shortlist would be Stutz, Meyers and Fab Melo. Their GM Smarty Score is -1.1. And that’s exactly what Fab Melo is. But if they pick him, I’ll probably punch a wall. I am a closet Bucks fan.
  11. Pick 13 Goes the Suns.
    Waiters will probably slot in here.

The entire TABLE is here. Every link on that list goes to the website that explains the workout that player has done with that respective team. It’s funny how GMs ask players to work out for them despite the fact that the GM can’t possibly draft that guy. A lot of hometown heroes preening for the camera.

Whew, I’m tired.

My twitter account is banned so…I’m probably going to post this up on…my head.

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One Response to “Predicting the Lottery Team Picks.”

  1. sportsfanatic613 Says:

    Nice job. I just came across your material two weeks ago and I’ve been enjoying reading all of it. Your #6-the Blazers needs to be changed to Neil Olshey and not Rich Cho as Cho is now in Charlotte. Looking forward to rest of the draft when you complete it.


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