Who’s the Best Mid-Range Shooter 2012-2013 Edition

Okay, so I haven’t been writing much but that’s because I’ve got at least 5 projects going on at work and I’m heading it all up by myself because I’m a control freak idiot.

I’m working on this basketball stuff as fast as I can. Now that the Houston Rockets’ playoffs have ended, partly due to the fact that they have ZERO power forwards, I wonder, how hard is it to find a rebounding long 2 shooter?

So I decided to make a few thresholds.
1. 40% on long 2’s are the cutoff point.
2. In the past 3 years, you must have have hit above this in order to be included.

The exact methodology will be at the end of this article but here’s the gist.

How much FG% per Mid-Range Shot id each player have? And since every shot attempt has a different adjustment, I adjusted/normalized for it (People that take 2 shots have higher raw numbers than people that take 5 shots).

Since adjusting it 3 times(once every year) is highly volatile, I also did a 3 year average that adjusted only once. This way, a player wouldn’t be penalized too heavily for an injury year as long as they shot well overall.

PLAYER RAWRANKING MID-RANGEATTEMPTS ADJRANKING 3 YEAR ADJ-R
brand 11.09 4.50 1.76 3.09
bass 9.35 5.17 1.45 1.35
west 8.76 5.53 1.30 2.09
garnett 6.82 7.13 1.27 1.11
jason smith 11.61 4.10 1.16 1.61
marc gasol 14.41 3.23 1.08 1.08
dirk 5.50 8.97 1.02 1.06
durant 6.55 6.97 0.94 0.84
bosh 7.19 6.33 0.84 0.53
henderson 7.51 5.87 0.72 0.84
melo 5.34 7.83 0.29 0.34
bryant 5.18 8.33 0.28 0.18
lbj 7.07 6.23 0.28 0.40
horford 9.12 5.13 0.23 1.12
duncan 8.01 5.57 0.23 1.34
jefferson 6.21 6.63 0.18 0.50
lma 4.76 8.73 0.04 0.32
boozer 7.24 5.70 -0.22 0.57

The conclusions were pretty good.

Here’s the thing in color

Screen Shot 2013-05-06 at 2.19.12 AM

————-The JUICY PART————–

1. Brand and West are the best of the bunch. Their production has dropped significantly but they are still much better. Bass might actually be still improving in this area. Judging by this bracket, Elton Brand might be a better buy since even a drop next year still sees him as better than the rest.

2. Kevin Garnett is a historically great volume shooter. And has been historically.

3. Jason Smith and Marc Gasol are the same types of shooter. They actually don’t shoot enough Mid Range Shots to be significantly predictable. They might be good one year and terrible the next. the variance between 4 and 5 shots taken per game is SIGNIFICANT. Those that take 5 shots and over are much more predictable.Namely, I wouldn’t trade for Jason Smith and expect him to hit those Mid-Range shots for you.

4. Dirk is the probably one of the best mid range shooters in the game. The 1.00 variance means he takes a lot and he hits a lot. He is slightly worse than KG.

5. The next group is Henderson, Durant, and Bosh. Henderson is a SG, I know but he takes a bunch of midrange shots. I felt i had to include him as a second string comparison.

6. melo, bryant, lbj, jefferson, lma are terrible at the long 2. In the case of bryant, he’s been bad at the long 2 for some time quite a while. When the two adjusted numbers are as close together as it is with Melo, it’s really not an injury season that plagues Melo. It’s just a volume shooting at a low percentage. He’s def. shot worse than his peers injury or no injury. LMA and Jefferson have a bit of variance which indicate injury but even in their best form they weren’t spectacular.

Duncan and Horford really fell off the map. They used to be considerably much better. This indicates a permanent drop in mid-range production.

Boozer is just terrible. He’s all over the place.

—————

In conclusion, if you want someone to space the floor, it’s West, Brand and Brandon Bass.

The NBA geek has their 3 stats lined up for you to choose.

West and Brand are old but even on their worst days, they’ve been better than Bass on his best. But Bass is 25 years old and he’ll have more effective minutes in him.

West will be more expensive and it can be argued that Brand is actually BETTER than him.

The best scenario would be to grab Brand and Bass for 1 year + 1 year team option.

*******(how to calculate)*******************

http://www.nba.com/stats

filter to midrange shots. I did a lot of this manually. I can hold a lot of information in my head and just write down all the outliers. Copy down 20 or so people who take a lot of shots and have a >40% fg rate.

Raw Ranking is calculated by taking the Mid Range FG% and dividing it by FGA. It’s basically FGM/FGA^2.  You basically get smaller FG% number to work with.

Next is to create a Bracket Raw Ranking. Guys that take 10 shots with 40% accuracy would be 40/10 or 4.00 Raw Rank.

So if you have a 5.00 Raw Rank taking 10 shots, you would minus it by 4 and get a 1.00 Ranking which is pretty good (Kevin Garnett good).

One of the problems with NBA stats is that they do not do it by a per 48 minute basis. That might skew the results a bit.

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