Before we head further, I’d like to explain 3 things.
1. PAWS40 is a stat about 9 box scores. I’ve recently changed it PAWS40 II to reflect the lower value defensive rebounds should have.
2. Average NBA level players are now 6 PAWS40 II instead of 10 PAWS40
3. Marshon Brooks was a 9, as was Alec Burks, so keep that in mind. They are producing bench type numbers. Shooting is the stat that’s wildly unpredictable. Out of all the positions, shooting guard is the worst to pick for. In fact, signing up as a shooting guard lowers your draft chances by like some absurd number.
4. Because shooting guards require defensive ability, I’m going to make a quick and dirty composite blocks/steal score and compare it to the positional league average. For example, shooting guards usually block 1.0 shots per 40 minutes. Why are you only blocking .5!
| . | Name | 2011. PAWS40 | 2010. PAWS40 | avg POS | FT% 2011 | FT%.2010 | 2yearpaws | Rank | ||||
| . | Marcus Denmon | 10.03 | 10.38 | 2.00 | 89.60 | 75.80 | 10.20 | 1 | ||||
| . | Orlando Johnson | 7.83 | 9.18 | 2.00 | 69.80 | 80.40 | 8.50 | 2 | ||||
| . | Bradley Beal | 8.13 | NA | 2.00 | 76.90 | NA | 8.13 | 3 | ||||
| . | John Jenkins | 8.38 | 7.53 | 2.00 | 83.70 | 89.40 | 7.95 | 4 | ||||
| . | Kyle Kuric | 5.88 | 9.03 | 2.00 | 79.10 | 75.80 | 7.45 | 5 | ||||
| . | Jeremy Lamb | 7.18 | 7.53 | 2.00 | 81.00 | 79.70 | 7.35 | 6 | ||||
| . | Will Barton | 9.91 | 4.66 | 2.50 | 74.90 | 69.90 | 7.28 | 7 | ||||
| . | Terrence Ross | 7.06 | NA | 2.50 | 76.60 | NA | 7.06 | 8 | ||||
| . | Sean Kilpatrick | 7.03 | 6.98 | 2.00 | 75.00 | 72.20 | 7.00 | 9 | ||||
| . | Jared Cunningham | 6.78 | 7.23 | 2.00 | 73.70 | 77.90 | 7.00 | 10 | ||||
| . | Sheldon McClellan | 6.68 | NA | 2.00 | 75.60 | NA | 6.68 | 11 | ||||
| . | Victor Oladipo | 6.61 | NA | 2.50 | 75.00 | NA | 6.61 | 12 | ||||
| . | C.J. Wilcox | 6.58 | NA | 2.00 | 83.90 | NA | 6.58 | 13 | ||||
| . | Drew Crawford | 7.43 | 5.33 | 2.00 | 70.40 | 71.40 | 6.38 | 14 | ||||
| . | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 6.18 | NA | 2.00 | 65.40 | NA | 6.18 | 15 | ||||
| . | Trent Lockett | 5.93 | 6.08 | 2.00 | 71.10 | 66.20 | 6.00 | 16 | ||||
| . | Jerry Brown | 5.86 | NA | 2.50 | 67.40 | NA | 5.86 | 17 | ||||
| . | Doron Lamb | 6.08 | 5.48 | 2.00 | 82.60 | 79.00 | 5.78 | 18 | ||||
| . | Charlie Westbrook | 6.33 | 4.93 | 2.00 | 76.60 | 67.90 | 5.63 | 19 | ||||
| . | Keala King | 5.63 | NA | 2.00 | 67.60 | NA | 5.63 | 20 | ||||
| . | William Buford | 5.03 | 5.78 | 2.00 | 83.20 | 84.30 | 5.40 | 21 | ||||
| . | Kim English | 7.51 | 3.16 | 2.50 | 72.50 | 72.60 | 5.33 | 22 | ||||
| . | Vander Blue | 5.23 | NA | 2.00 | 70.80 | NA | 5.23 | 23 | ||||
| . | Dominic Cheek | 5.08 | NA | 2.00 | 80.40 | NA | 5.08 | 24 | ||||
| . | Dion Dixon | 4.23 | 5.83 | 2.00 | 69.90 | 76.20 | 5.03 | 25 | ||||
| . | TyShwan Edmondson | 3.83 | 6.18 | 2.00 | 75.00 | 74.50 | 5.00 | 26 | ||||
| . | Andre Dawkins | 3.73 | 6.03 | 2.00 | 73.90 | 79.10 | 4.88 | 27 | ||||
| . | Sean Mosley | 5.43 | 4.23 | 2.00 | 83.50 | 76.60 | 4.83 | 28 | ||||
| . | Darius Johnson-Odom | 5.43 | 4.13 | 2.00 | 76.40 | 70.80 | 4.78 | 29 | ||||
Lottery Teams 2, 3, 4, and 5 need shooting. Bobcats, Wizards, Cleveland and Sacramento. Bobcats need everything so who knows who’ll they pick.
Most Pundited: Bradley Beal
1. Marcus Denmon
He’s the safe pick. But 1 point above Alec Burks isn’t too awesome. But having two consecutive 10+ years is great. FT% has improved. The only reason why Bradley Beal is such hot stuff is because Bradley has an 8 right off the bat. Denmon was a 4 with freshman minutes and a 6 as a sophomore. The streets are paved with Bradley Beals that never lived up to their potential. One and doners. sigh. He had a bad combine this morning–didn’t shoot well. Betya he’s going to be more productive his first year than Bradley though. Kindah hard to be a short shooting guard though. Good luck Denmon.
1.8 STL40, 0 BLK40(look the guy is 6 feet. If he had more blocks i’d be championing Denmon but alas, life is unfair and tall.)
2. Bradley Beal, Terrence Ross, Jeremy Lamb(Fad Kids – young kids with good freshman/sophomore years)
Bradley Beal
Freshman extraordinaire. No one remind the GMs of the large variance shooting guards have. You know, what I call freshman scoring guards with great scores? Fishbait. Think about it. They can shoot. They can dribble. They can pass. Why don’t they go play point guard? Because to learn how to point guard, you got to learn how to pass. To learn how to pass, you’ll be a turnover king. There’s a reason why I don’t include the freshman years of players who play bench. Well, he’s gonna get a payday so I guess he knows what he’s doing. Anyways. Everyone’s got Russel Westbrook fever or something.
1.6 STL40, 1 BLK40 (Blah.)
Terrence Ross
I think he’s better than Beal in some ways. He took a year to learn on the bench. Then came out with a strong sophomore year. It’ll be easier to teach him than someone who never hit a rookie wall
1.3 STL40, .9 BLK ( hah, same as Orlando Johnson. Orlando has a much better wingspan though. 6’11 vs 6’7, hrm. Again, I’m biased against Fad Kids.)
Jeremy Lamb
How’s he different from Beal? Oh yeah, he regressed from a good freshman year! If he had went to the draft last year, he’d be Beal. He’s 6 feet 5 at least.
Oh wait, he’s got 1.3STL/.9BLK, the same as his peers who are shorter than him and less long. If it werent’ for the draft, he’d have time to work on his passing. This is why the NBA has a shortage of point guards. I don’t blame him. I blame the NBA.
4. Outliers…
Oh. what do we have here? Will Barton? Fabulous numbers? check. Tremendous improvement from a shoddy start. Check. FT% improvement. Check.
I like this guy. But…1.6STL/.8BLK for a 6’6 guy seems strange dontcha think? Anyways. 9+ rating means he’s a better buy Bradley or the Lambs. But he could also be an Orlando Johnson and regress.AND his reach is less than Orlando Johson.
Conclusions:
I know Beal is the top prospect but if I was a gambler (and that’s what the draft is) , I’d pick Denmon. Or Orlando Johnson. With Orlando, you can at least fall back on making him a danny green or sefolosha (a lockdown defender spot up 3 shooter). With Denmon, he’s got a proven track consecutive years of success + his steals are pretty high.
But the dark horse is JAE CROWDER. The Jack OF ALL TRADES wants to be a shooting guard. I don’t want to give away my feelings of adoration for this man’s stats but this guy is REALLY good.
But that’s for next time since he’s in the Small Forward section.
Until Next Time, stay toothy toothfairy.
UPDATE:
- John Jenkins might declare for draft.
So let’s begin with the stats. [%avg Pts] – % of Points You’ve Scored Higher Than The Average 2-Guard.
Jenkins Scored 43% more points. He’s a high usage, high efficiency(12%+) player who makes his living on the three point line. He makes 4 out of every 10 TREYS. (Top 5 3pt shooting 2guard) He tends to avoid the paint despite fielding 13% better efficacy rates. He gets to the free throw line 30% more and he is a 10% better at making those freebies. 80%+ FT shooter bodes well for his stroke. Steals, Assists, and Blocks are underwhelming and below average. As are his rebounds.
He’s a junior. So ‘upsides’, if I believed in that sort of thing.
He’s 6’4 with a wingspan of 6’8.
Bradley is still to clear cut favorite but his stroke is not as wet as Jenkins even though Bradley’s defensive acumen is MUCH MUCH better.
I hate to say it but Beal does deserve top mentions.
But Marcus Denmon, Orlando, John Jenkins and Will Barton are no pushovers.
If I had to pick, with an eye on scoring and defense. I pick Will Barton. Here is the matrix for the decision.
As much as Denmon and JJ are an offensive power-house, there are just as much as a liability defensively. Bradley Beal maybe the top pick just in that aspect but his scoring is raw. His FT% shows he might grow an offensive game.
Will Barton and Orlando Johnson are a right mixture of everything. With a few caveats. Orlando’s 2pt efficiency as well as his FT% is suspect yet has a competitive 3pt ability. Will Barton’s only problem is his 3pt shooting and FT rate.
It’s really a toss up between OJ and WB.
bballpants - on Basketball. 
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