The Top 30 2012 Draft List

If you don’t understand what PRAWS40 is, please check the Pages on the left hand side.
2012 Rankings by Percentage Better than Peers

. RANK Name avg POS
. 1 Anthony Davis 4
. 2 Jesse Sanders 1
. 3 Damian Lillard 1
. 4 Tyler Zeller 5
. 5 Marcus Denmon 2
. 6 Marshawn Powell 4
. 7 Will Barton 2.5
. 8 Cody Zeller 5
. 9 Scott Machado 1
. 10 Arsalan Kazemi 4
. 11 Jae Crowder 3.5
. 12 C.J. McCollum 1.5
. 13 William Mosley 4.5
. 14 Jared Sullinger 5
. 15 John Jenkins 2
. 16 Miles Plumlee 5
. 17 Reggie Hamilton 1
. 18 Doug McDermott 4
. 19 Ken Horton 3.5
. 20 Jeff Withey 5
. 21 Bradley Beal 2
. 22 Ricardo Ratliffe 4.5
. 23 Andre Roberson 4
. 24 Orlando Johnson 2
. 25 Kendrick Perry 1
. 26 Jack Cooley 4.5
. 27 Trevor Mbakwe 4.5
. 28 Nate Wolters 1
. 29 Robert Covington 4
. 30 Kevin Jones 4
. RANK Name avg POS %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40 avg PRAWS40
. 1 Anthony Davis 4 0.99 0.98 0.81 1.20 1.06 0.87 1.21 0.17 0.37 0.49 1.17 1.10 1.06 1.09 1.30 1.24 0.92 1.39 3.34 0.45 0.65 2.12 2.36 15.25
. 2 Jesse Sanders 1 0.86 0.82 0.72 1.15 1.04 0.96 1.11 0.35 0.33 1.03 1.17 1.15 1.02 4.19 1.77 2.21 1.62 0.86 0.57 1.01 0.92 2.57 2.28 9.8
. 3 Damian Lillard 1 1.71 1.56 1.41 1.10 1.37 1.23 1.11 1.97 1.70 1.19 2.02 1.76 1.15 0.81 1.58 1.44 0.82 1.04 1.70 0.88 0.88 2.47 2.19 9.4
. 4 Tyler Zeller 5 1.54 1.44 1.38 1.05 1.46 1.42 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.89 1.58 1.22 1.51 1.27 1.35 1.08 1.38 0.78 1.04 0.92 1.80 2.16 12.15
. 5 Marcus Denmon 2 1.23 1.19 1.10 1.08 0.93 0.85 1.09 1.65 1.43 1.17 1.18 0.93 1.22 0.95 1.22 1.13 0.95 1.23 0.00 0.52 0.43 2.53 2.03 8.4
. 6 Marshawn Powell 4 2.03 2.09 1.50 1.38 2.28 1.56 1.46 0.00 1.16 0.00 2.19 2.10 1.03 1.38 0.92 1.07 1.61 1.56 1.61 2.55 1.53 1.84 2.01 13.2
. 7 Will Barton 2.5 1.20 1.25 1.09 1.15 1.47 1.28 1.16 0.71 0.75 1.00 1.24 1.21 1.03 1.49 1.46 1.46 1.34 1.22 1.33 0.93 0.80 2.27 1.96 8.65
. 8 Cody Zeller 5 1.46 1.37 1.16 1.19 1.39 1.19 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.78 1.58 1.14 0.93 0.90 0.91 1.49 2.02 0.57 0.88 0.92 1.63 1.91 11
. 9 Scott Machado 1 0.92 0.99 0.84 1.17 1.07 0.93 1.16 0.81 0.69 1.17 0.83 0.79 1.06 1.35 1.37 1.39 2.00 1.10 1.14 1.21 1.15 2.12 1.91 8.1
. 10 Arsalan Kazemi 4 0.92 0.83 0.73 1.15 0.91 0.83 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 1.32 1.02 1.03 1.48 1.33 1.67 2.29 0.75 0.93 0.95 1.73 1.88 12.4
. 11 Jae Crowder 3.5 1.22 1.16 1.13 1.02 1.01 0.88 1.15 1.93 1.98 1.03 1.20 1.11 1.08 0.79 1.25 1.10 1.46 2.29 0.96 0.62 0.90 1.80 1.82 11.55
. 12 C.J. McCollum 1.5 1.52 1.49 1.49 1.00 1.64 1.67 0.98 1.15 1.20 1.05 1.82 1.69 1.07 1.72 1.75 1.74 0.98 1.74 2.53 0.96 0.94 2.06 1.82 8.75
. 13 William Mosley 4.5 0.92 0.95 0.84 1.12 0.99 0.89 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.87 1.25 0.70 1.19 1.18 1.18 0.83 1.98 2.57 0.64 0.92 1.59 1.75 12.55
. 14 Jared Sullinger 5 1.53 1.42 1.44 0.99 1.36 1.35 1.00 6.50 4.49 2.99 1.72 1.53 1.16 1.12 1.24 1.20 1.32 1.59 0.50 0.96 0.92 1.49 1.71 10.05
. 15 John Jenkins 2 1.43 1.33 1.20 1.12 0.79 0.70 1.13 2.29 1.86 1.26 1.29 1.10 1.14 0.40 0.75 0.66 0.55 0.68 0.94 0.71 0.55 2.04 1.70 6.75
. 16 Miles Plumlee 5 0.86 0.90 0.78 1.16 0.91 0.80 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.83 0.96 1.56 1.27 1.38 0.83 1.06 0.64 0.92 1.09 1.47 1.69 9.95
. 17 Reggie Hamilton 1 1.77 1.64 1.54 1.05 1.40 1.39 1.00 2.14 1.80 1.22 1.99 1.76 1.14 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.03 1.35 0.57 1.37 1.23 1.84 1.68 7
. 18 Doug McDermott 4 1.61 1.64 1.41 1.16 1.48 1.26 1.17 3.30 2.44 1.58 1.25 1.04 1.19 0.88 1.03 0.98 0.75 0.25 0.06 0.97 0.60 1.55 1.67 11.15
. 19 Ken Horton 3.5 1.26 1.22 1.22 1.00 1.12 0.99 1.14 1.74 1.98 0.94 1.23 1.03 1.18 1.05 1.15 1.11 1.17 1.77 1.35 0.91 0.84 1.65 1.66 10.55
. 20 Jeff Withey 5 0.96 0.83 0.81 1.02 0.84 0.83 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 1.21 1.20 0.91 1.05 1.00 0.99 1.06 2.06 0.77 0.96 1.45 1.66 9.8
. 21 Bradley Beal 2 1.04 0.99 0.95 1.05 0.98 0.87 1.13 1.00 1.05 0.97 1.24 1.17 1.05 1.27 1.63 1.54 1.03 1.09 2.36 0.93 0.95 1.96 1.65 6.5
. 22 Ricardo Ratliffe 4.5 1.24 1.43 1.10 1.28 1.49 1.17 1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.67 1.05 1.24 0.94 1.05 0.54 0.94 0.70 0.91 1.05 1.50 1.63 11.8
. 23 Andre Roberson 4 0.86 0.82 0.83 0.98 0.78 0.79 0.99 1.21 1.10 1.23 0.99 1.06 0.92 1.21 1.51 1.41 0.87 1.39 1.44 0.83 0.85 1.51 1.62 10.85
. 24 Orlando Johnson 2 1.39 1.40 1.32 1.06 1.43 1.49 0.97 1.30 1.09 1.23 1.41 1.44 0.95 1.51 1.24 1.33 1.34 0.89 2.12 1.04 0.83 1.87 1.59 6.2
. 25 Kendrick Perry 1 1.16 1.23 1.07 1.14 1.26 1.02 1.23 1.16 1.14 1.03 1.02 1.12 0.92 0.81 0.97 0.95 0.80 1.65 1.70 0.79 0.88 1.72 1.58 6.55
. 26 Jack Cooley 4.5 1.02 1.04 0.90 1.15 1.08 0.95 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.98 1.03 1.42 1.00 1.15 0.65 0.83 1.03 0.72 0.97 1.45 1.57 11.45
. 27 Trevor Mbakwe 4.5 1.13 0.90 0.80 1.11 0.94 0.85 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.94 1.75 1.11 1.40 1.05 1.17 1.19 1.67 1.12 1.67 0.84 1.44 1.56 11.35
. 28 Nate Wolters 1 1.43 1.53 1.45 1.06 1.95 1.76 1.11 0.64 0.92 0.70 1.51 1.49 1.02 1.35 1.43 1.42 1.18 1.16 0.57 0.82 0.84 1.68 1.55 6.4
. 29 Robert Covington 4 1.28 1.22 1.21 1.02 0.93 0.88 1.06 4.34 3.41 1.45 1.02 0.87 1.16 1.09 0.90 0.96 0.98 1.64 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.46 1.55 10.45
. 30 Kevin Jones 4 1.17 1.22 1.25 0.98 1.16 1.07 1.09 1.91 2.44 0.86 0.86 0.73 1.16 1.32 0.97 1.09 0.75 0.57 0.63 0.45 0.35 1.45 1.54 10.4
.

SCROLL HORIZONTALLY.

The graph above shows the percentages. Generally, good stats like points you’d want above 1.25 as taht would mean you are 25% than the average player in your position. This is all done in preparation of 2012 Draft Day because I’m sure GMs are going to draft on size and potential rather than production. The philosophy is kindah dumb because most draft picks using that scheme requires a bit of training to reach their potential—while the older ones are already NBA ready.

In any case, you can tell that the inclusion of Anthony Davis has scared away some good 4s and 5s. Cody Zeller, Powell, and Kazemi are all too scared to enter the draft for various reasons. Powell in particular has had a tremendous year.

On to the analysis:
1. Anthony Davis is far and away the number one draft pick. %AVG PRAWS40 means he’s 2.36x better than the average Power Forward.
2. Bradley Beal is a strictly Average player. 6PRAWS40 is the average NBA player. The thing is… Harden was a high 8 before regressing a point in his softmore year.  Hickory High has Beal Similarity Scores closer to Shannon Brown than anyone. I just see better picks. I will be doing an explanation of his Similarity Scores in the Right Hand Corner of this page soon. I quite like it. It’s not as simple as Win Score or Points Over Par but it’s a lot more fine tuned. Like a finer filter for already filtered coffee.

3. The Point Guard Prospects are really thin. Basically, it boils down to Jesse Sanders, Lillard, and Machado. Machado is for you real gamblers. Lillard is a score first point guard, with better steals and blocks. He is 18% below average PGs in assists. Jesse Sanders is 1.62x better than the average PG in Assists. However, Lillard is nearly 2x better than the average PG in 3pt% while Sanders has only 35% of the normal PGs 3pt%. It’s basically the difference between 35 and 40, though. Sanders has better rebounds though. Generally, I’d be happy with either. I do prefer Sanders as Lillard’s strength (shooting) is a random force that doesn’t reliably translate to the NBA world.

4. The Centers. Jared Sullinger, Zeller, Miles Plumlee. The most surprising thing is T. Zeller’s younger brother, Cody. As a freshman, he’s putting up better numbers than his brother. I think his brother’s been teaching him. Heartwarming, really.

Tyler Zeller’s Hickory Sim pegs him near Channing Frye.

J. Sullinger pegs him as Damion Jones

Orlando Johnson is pegged as Randy Foye

Machado is stuck between Marcus and Deron Williams. Choose your poison.

Denmon is stuck between Luther Head(who?) and Afflalo

It’s surprising that Quinn didn’t place high on my list but as 4.5s go, there is a heavy load of great 4.5s putting up great stats. Ratcliffe was destroyed by Quinn both times they played against each other in the PIT so there might be something wrong here. But ratcliffe is 6’7 only. In any case, Zeller is the clear choice for center.

For all those people that like Meyer’s more…

. Name avg POS %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40
. Meyers Leonard 4.5 0.99 1.04 0.95 1.08 1.07 0.98 1.10 0.00 0.58 0.26 0.90 0.80 1.12 0.75 1.05 0.95 1.01 0.62 1.12 1.02 0.97 1.00 1.00
. Tyler Zeller 5 1.54 1.44 1.38 1.05 1.46 1.42 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.89 1.58 1.22 1.51 1.27 1.35 1.08 1.38 0.78 1.04 0.92 1.80 2.16

Meyers may have better blocks but Zeller has everything else. Meyers is a 1.00 in the %avgPRAWS meter. He is exactly an average PF/C. EXACTLY.

5. The 4.5 position is strangely competitve. You have Mbawke and Cooley neck and neck. Mbawke has the turnovers or else he’d be much higher. I will be doing my Power Forward list soon so I’ll save the analysis till then. But it seems from early looks on those who’ve entered the draft, seems like it’s Mosley, Ratcliffe (his block% is troubling) and Mbawke with the top defending potentials. (The ones higher up on the list don’t seem to have entered into the draft pool.) I like Mosley myself.

Please enjoy the stats. Hit me up on twitter: bballpants, if you have any questions.

PS. I relooked at the 3pt% just to see what numbers popped up and Jared Sullinger is shooting 3x better than the average power forward at the three. He’s making .6 shots every 1.4 attempts every 40 minutes.

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