Because power forwards are so important in team play, i’ve included the entire gamut of stats. A little primer might be needed to understand them. This will be a page in the Glossary.
It is your normal set of box scores with a twist. Those numbers below are all percentages. Let’s take Anthony Davis. He made 98% of the average Field Goals a PF should make. It means he is 2% below Average. You can quickly scan and mark things down into trios.
Field Goals Made (FG), Field Goals Attempted (FGA), FG% are what I like to call ‘Points’
I’ve carved up the box scores into Three Sections
Scoring Stat Section: Points, Paint, Perimeter, Freebies. (with Respect to Turnovers and Assists.)
– A high scoring, high usage player with high turnovers and low assists is a danger flag.
People like Kevin Jones may get a high win score because he’s such a beast in the paint but I don’t like it. You take away his one weapon and he’s left with nothing to fall back on.
Defensive Stat Section: Rebounding, Blocks/PFouls, Steals/PFouls
– Defense is a gamble. Every steal or block is an opportunity for a foul.
Star Section: Assists/TOs
– Because point forwards are so rare and valuable, i’m almost willing to forgoe all the other sections if a player is spectacular in this.
*I run these sections thru my head for every pick. For Guards, the scoring stat section is more important. For Forwards, the defensive stat section is.
TWO Things to Note About This Chart
1. It includes 2011’s PRAWS40 at the end. It also includes the average between the last two seasons PRAWS40 contribution called 2YR PRAWS40. A bigger data set should more accurately reflect reality.
IF 2011 PRAWS40 > 2YR PRAWS40 then there was a DECLINE in productivity, year to year.
IF 2YR PRWS40 > 2011 PRAWS40 then that means GROWTH.
IF the two are EQUAL, then that means the player is relatively young or has only seen starter minutes recently.
1. Anthony Davis
He’s so sickeningly the first choice that I don’t even want to talk about how well he finishes around the rim. FT needs work…who am i kidding. The clear first pick. For comparison, Tim Duncan was a 10 PRAWS40 College Senior. A quick glance at the 4 primary stats show that Duncan was at least a 12 during his sophomore year.
2. 2013 Draftees.
Marshawn Powell, Kazemi, McDermott, Jack Cooley, Covington, Roberson
It is frightening how many of the top bigs are up for grabs next year. Powell is a monster. High turnovers, but high usage scoring machine. Low defensive rebounds but an offensive rebounding fiend. Improving upwards nicely.
I know I shouldn’t talk about next year’s prospects but Covington and McDermott need to be spoken about. Covington shoots 45% better than average PF McDermott shoots 60% better! In my list of 3 shooters who are better than average NCAA players, McDermott is number 1 at 48.6%. On average, he makes 2 out of 4 treys per game. And he still rebounds. Baller. Covington is in 6th place.
Aside from Andrew Nicholson, McDermott and Covington are the only Power Forwards in the top 10 NCAA trey shooters.
3. Mbawke (junior), Ratcliffe, Kevin Jones
They went from 7s to 9s. Not bad. KJ is a favorite of wagesofwins. Offensively, both high usage and offensively efficient. FT% great. Offensive Rebounds, great. Average DREBs. Below average assist/blocks/steals. I am not as gungho about Kevin Jones as other people are. But he is a 9 PRAWS40. With good Offensive Rebounds. Trending upward. Not a bad choice if you need some offense in your roster (cough sixers). He makes 2x as much treys but shots 3x as much. His 3pt efficiency is 14% less than average. I just can’t recommend him despite him being a 9. He has ONE trick. It’s a very good trick but it’s only one trick.
Ratcliffe went from a 8 to a 10. Very similar to Jones but with a spike in points. He scores 25% more than the average 4. Everything else is average. Defensive stats are below average. Rebounds are at a respectable 20%. He is the better KJ.
Mbawke. A mixed bag. 20% more assists but with 67% more turnovers. But good steals/blocks and 40% better OREBs. Decent FT rate. The guy gets to the foul line and makes it 2x more than his peers. A brawler.
If I had to choose, I’d pick Mbawke. The problems with turnovers can be alleviated with good passing guards. He’s younger by a year as well.
I will always lean toward the Pick with the better Defensive Stat Section
4. Julain Boyd -Poor kid had a heart problem last year.
5. Eli Holman – 6’7… but with a 7’4 wingspan.
Ranks 13 on my PF list. 35% more steals but 32% more turnovers. 12% fg efficiency but only 8% better point scoring. Other stuff is average sauce. 30+% better OREBs. eh. Not an impressive year. But still quite a good player. Seems like he uses a lot of effort to run around in circles. a Constant 8-9 score is still 3 points above average NBA players. I really expected better blocks. Only 8% better.
6. The Crazy 8s.
John Henson, Drew Gordon, Kyle O’Quinn, Andrew Nicholson, Eric Griffin
Out of this whole group, the one with the best Defensive Stat Section is Drew Gordon, his steal percentage and offensive rebounds making up for his lack of blocks. His scoring is economical and efficient. He sports a 11% Above Average FT% as well. The %PRAWS indicate that he is the best buy as well.
Kyle O’Quinn is better defensively than Nicholson by a good margin but at the expense of being 14% more foul prone than Nicholson. But 20% more rebs and 20% more blocks more than cover it. It’s really a toss up on who’s better scoring paint points. Both are average with Kyle being more aggressive. Nicholson is a better shooter by far as he hits 1 out ever 2.2 treys per game. His ft% rate is better as is the general case of good perimeter players. But Kyle gets to the line more often. I give the edge to Kyle.
Henson and Griffin were much better last year which made me google them for injury. Henson suffered from a sprained wrist.. Griffin has only been playing basketball for 6 years. If we look at there Def. Section, Henson is the clear winner. In fact, he is the clear leader of the entire group in blocked shots. Offensively, Eric Gordon is 20% better than Henson both in the paint and at the perimeter. But I see that as a wash since he has 15% more Pfouls than avg. Henson’s offense this year has been underwhelming. But because of the injury, I think Henson is a better bet. He also commits 40% less personal fouls than average.
I think Henson is the best choice out of this series while Gordon is the safest.
7. Thomas Robinson, Javon McCrea.
Oh this is fun. Both are high usage players. 20% Above Average PF in scoring but Javon is 10% more efficent than average and 12% better at the paint than Robinson. Javon is a horrible free throw shooter while Robinson is average. If we look at the defensive side, Javon’s got high orebs but due to high usage, he might just be grabbing his own misses. Defensively i conisder both a wash. Javon is technically better but has 30+% more fouls than average.
On the turnover side, TR is 17% above avg, while Javon is 21%. But Javon assists 73% more to TRob’s paltry 33.
I’d vote for Javon.
8. Meyers Leanord.
I just wanted to include Meyers in the analysis because of all the draft talk about him. As you can see above, he is completely average to below average. His two saving graces is that he shoots 12% above ft% average and he blocks 12% better than average. Which, in the great scheme of things, still makes him below average.
His %PRAWS is exactly 1.00
He is exactly Average. Whoever drafts him, probably already has someone on the bench exactly like him.
Oh my god, this list was long.
If I can’t have Anthony Davis, it would have to be
Mbawke William Mosley with Drew Gordon as my safety pick.
Javon McCrea is the only one amongst this group with a Star Section.
If I wanted to pick a breakout star, fully well knowing that stars are barely 7% of the market, I might pick Javon.
#Whoops. He plans to stay in college and graduate!
Update: Whoops. Mbawke has a torn ACL and has to prove himself in college again. Can’t Believe I didn’t write about William Mosley. I forgot that I had already written about him. Check him out here.
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