2012 Draft is a Shallow Draft! Move up, guys. Move up!

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If it’s such a deep draft why are the Bucks and the Houston Rockets looking to move up?

Here’s the research I did a month ago on the positional averages for the last two seaasons.

*20minutes, 10games+ playing time

 POS  AVG  2010 RAWS40 2011 RAWS40
. 1.0 3.941 4.068 3.813
. 1.5 4.012 3.785 4.238
. 2.0 3.592 3.870 3.314
. 2.5 3.900 3.992 3.808
. 3.0 5.346 5.581 5.111
. 3.5 6.572 6.735 6.410
. 4.0 7.138 7.094 7.181
. 4.5 7.796 7.712 7.880
. 5.0 7.324 7.890 6.758
. POS 2010RAWS40 2011RAWS40
. NCAA AVERAGE 5.513 5.636 5.390
. avg POS avg(2YR.RAWS40) avg RAWS40 across all positions

See the difference? Let’s dissect Point Guards. The average Point guard in 2010 had an average RAWS40 of 4.068. Kryie Irving was in that draft so yeah. But it wasn’t just Kyrie Irving. There was:

Kyrie Iriving, Norris Cole, Kemba Walker, Fredette, All

Season 10′  highest WS40 point guards.
I left out the ones that went undrafted. Like Derwin Kitchen (8.73 RAWS40) He’ll be 26 in 2012!

In any case, the strength of the 2010 class was bolstered heavily by Kyrie Irving. Check the chart below.

*A PRAWS40 of 7 is an Avg NBA Player. For example, Kyrie Irving is 11 so he would be a + 4

Name 2010
PRAWS40
 2010 2011 WP48 WP48 Translation 
. Kyrie Irving 11.13  Drafted. .119  Starter
. Norris Cole 8.03  Drafted. -.108 Super Scrub
. C.J. McCollum 7.58  Nope. Nope.  NA 2012 PRAWS40: 10.0 3+ Better than NBA Bench
. Kemba Walker 7.53  Drafted  .011  Scrub
. Jimmer Fredette 7.23  Drafted  -.065  Scrub+
. Iman Shumpert 7.18  Drafted  .5  Bench
. Damian Lillard 7.03     (In NCAA ’11, he has jumped up to 10.3 PRAWS40)

….
Kyrie Irving is a +4. Norris is a +1.

Everyone else is a fraction over the NBA average. Not very good man. Not very good at all. The only person who did well was the person who didn’t need to play point guard due to a freak Lin Accident.(Shumpert!)

Of course, you need a full four years before you can fully tell whether a rookie is good or not. Still, if you have just 3 years to make use of a first round pick…why wouldn’t you pick the +3s and +4s? So you don’t have to waste that first year training them?

In any case, I’ve stablished that the 2010 crop of point guards isn’t up to WS40 standards.

How does 2011 fare?

The Average PRAWS40 score is a full .20 less. That doesn’t seem like much so let’s create the top PG list again for NCAA ’11.

Name 2011 PRAWS40
. Damian Lillard 10.28 +3
. Jesse Sanders 10.68 +3
. Nate Wolters 7.28  0
. Reggie Hamilton 7.88  0
. Phl Pressey 6.58  -1
. Scott Machado 8.98  +2
. Tu Holloway 5.58  -2
. Kendrick Perry 7.43  +1
. Aaron Craft 6.78  +1
. Ray McCallum 6.18  -1
. Pierre Jackson 6.03  -1
. Jordan Taylor 4.98  -2
. Kevin Pangos 5.88  -1
. Kendall Marshall 6.58  <—LOOK! Average!

.

We’ve got Two Seniors with +3s , two with 0s, and the rest are -1. Yes, the talent pool has shrunk. That’s with a 2 tenths decrease.

Let’s see the decrease per positions.

 POS  DELTA ’10/’11  2010 RAWS40 2011 RAWS40
. 1.0 -.2 4.068 3.813
. 1.5 +.5 3.785 4.238
. 2.0 -.5 3.870 3.314
. 2.5    -.2  3.992 3.808
. 3.0           -.4  5.581 5.111
. 3.5           -.3         6.735        6.410
. 4.0           +.1         7.094        7.181
. 4.5 +.1 7.712 7.880
. 5.0 -1.1 7.890 6.758

Why would anyone think that this draft is deep?
The 2010 NCAA is  on average .3 tenths of a point worse than 2011!

I won’t bore you with the charts on the combo guards which saw a huge gain and the power forward list which saw a nominal one. Here are the conclusions.

  • Pure point guards. There are no Kyrie Irving who was young and a +4. Our two best PGs are seniors AND +3s. Last year they were 0s. It would be good to revisit them and see if their careers map accordingly. If Lillard gets drafted, he might produce the same as say Kemba Walker in 2012-2013. That would be a nice experiment.
  • Combo Guards.
    C.J. McCollum happened. He’s now a junior with a +3. As young and good goes, he’s a great bet. Too bad he’s not in the draft. Aside from him we’ve got 4 or 5 0’s, and  a def. +1. Many of them aren’t in the draft. “Too crowded with people that don’t belong there”. Last year’s list had more +0’s though. But their highes was Old Man Kitchen with a +2.
  • There are 7 NBA quality SGs in 2011.
    There were 12 NBA quality SG in 2010.
  • There are 14 SF, shooter SFs in 2011. (7 are +1 or greater)
    There were  17 in 2010 (10 are +1 or greater)
  • The small forward/power forward position is just ridiculous. Sample is so small I shouldn’t even have wasted my time.
  • Power Forwards have traditionally been the most productive. And with Anthony Davis in this sample, raising the bar by .1 to .2 is actually quite a feat.
  • The Center situation is the most alarming. There really isn’t a big man. If the Bucks want a competent center. They shouldn’t even be looking at the draft this year. There just isn’t any good ones. There were 6 +1s last year. There are only Three this year. Cody Zeller isn’t in the draft. Sullinger is short and has a back injury. What the Bucks are looking for is Miles Plumlee and Tyler Zeller. But I just did the Bucks’ GM SmartyScore and if I’m right, their probably going to pick someone with a -1 like Meyers Leanord or Fab Melo. If they climb up the draft, that logic changes. They normally gamble anyways, the higher the pick the higher the reward. Doesn’t mean they still aren’t unwise wasteful gamblers.

Hopefully I’ve established the fact that this really isn’t a deep draft. Anything past pick 10 will probably hit dirt.

That explains why picks 12 and 14 (Bucks, rockets) are so eager to move up.

This research was done a month ago! I can’t believe it’s still useful. Score!

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