Who were the big draft winners?
Its hilarious that Arturo uses the version 1 of the Win Score system while everything on the site espouses using Reb Adj. Win Score. He probably doesn’t want to rewrite all that logic again. I understand the laziness.
So I’ve made my own.
Before you read ahead, go look at Anthony Davis below and then come up back to this paragraph.
POS = Position. If they play the 3 and the 4, It might read 3.5
PRAWS40 = Position and Rebound Adjusted Win Score Over 40 Minutes. The % AVG prefix indicates the column will be based on %s and Averages usually based on the positional average.
For Example, Anthony Davis has 2.36 [%avgPRAWS40] which means he’s 2.36x better than your average NCAA player.
TREND means from seasons 2010-2011, did he grow, stay the same or decline? Since Davis is a freshman, he stayed the same obviously.
It’s all color coded. The Dark Brown means spectacular. The Green means good. The Yellow means Excellent %s. The Red is a Danger Flag.
The following are all the Drafted and Undrafted Prospects of 2012. I don’t know where the official list is so I just downloaded a bunch of files and cobbled together a generated “Hey I’m in the Draft” list. As usual, i filtered players by 20 mins+ per game played, 10 games+.
Why did I choose these Stats? It’s based on Ian Levy’s work on similarity scores. These are the 7 stats that transfer 75%+ to the NBA from college. I will link to his full work when he’s completed it. He doesn’t work on research after the season’s over apparently. Neither do I but once wages of wins did their color coded thing, I felt I had to flatter them a bit by copying them.
*Keep in mind that a PRAWS40 of 7 is the NBA average.
The first page is where the best 2 YEAR AVERAGES of PRAWS40 is at.
- Yellow Flags:
Anthony Davis, Mosley, Jae Crowder, Dominique Sutton( I dont know where he came from either.), Tony Mitchell, Orlando Johnson, Henson, Beal.
-Notice how Jae has a lot of steals and Sutton gets to the free throw line.
- The Brown Blocks:
Anthony Davis, Denmon, Lillard, Sanders, Zeller. There all twice as good as your average player. Someone needs to pick up Sanders.
- The All Green:
Ken Horton. The best overall player. Consistently +3. Undrafted. Shame.
- The Young and Deadly:
Davis( You again? go away.), Lillard, Sullinger, Henson, Beal, Jenkins. Anyone want to stop giving the Celtics the best picks? Seriously? Rondo wasn’t enough?
The Reason why I’ve spent so much time here is that there are quite a few analytical gems here. The Mavericks, the Spurs, and the Magic obtained the best 3 guys in the draft. Mosley isn’t really versatile at all so I understand why you might shy away from him. for his 6’7′ height, you’d want some shooting ability—and you can tell by his ft% that he has the worst shot known to man. But the guy is a monster. Eats babies, spits out men.
If I had to grade draft picks on youth and ability, it would go in this order: Hornets, Blazers, Celtics, Bucks, Wizards, Hawks. So the Celtics, as a playoff team, really stole the friggin Young and Deadly draft.
As you can see, there are a bunch of Undrafted NAs up there. I think it’s unfair.
- Mosley is a beast. Put him on Lebron or something. Hire a shooting coach for him. The guy actually IMPROVED from last year!
- Horton is good at everything. He’s consistent. He shoots well. He rebounds. He assists. #HortonLives
- Crowder and Lillard are the only two who are still improving significantly year to year. Go Blazers! Rooting for the Spurs is like rooting for the Flash to win the 100km sprint.
- Sutton is 25 and has an injury flag. He’s not great. Sometimes, you just need a bruiser. Eli Holman got shot in college. Eh.
Now to critizize NBA teams.
- Miles is old, stagnated growth. Indiana, what are you thinking. I’m glad Hibbert is leaving you. I’m glad Bird left you. Bah. (F GRADE)
- Jenkins is a Junior, he’s growing, but he’s still just a +1 with no defensive capabilities. Don’t you know that shooting well in college means less than nothing in the nba?
- Beal is awesome sauce. I’m glad he was the 2nd pick…wait? what? he wasn’t? What the f—?
- I love Zeller. But Cleveland, you do realize your big man pick can’t block shots, right? I’ve written this before. This is the worst year for centers. Why waste your pick on a center? In Cleveland’s case, why waste multiple picks on one? Mavericks just robbed the crap out of Cleveland. So sad.
Now to criticize myself.
I actually ranked Drew Gordon highly in the beginning. But the charts disagree, Too many red flags. At the very least you should have the average number of steals as your peers do. Should I keep backing Chris Johnson? Feels foolhardy. Then again, why gamble on Johnsons and Gordons when Horton is still available for purchase? Why, GMs? WHYYYYY?
[TIER 1] Davis, Horton, Crowder
WELCOME TO AVERAGE TOWN USA:
- The Yellow Flags:
Draymond Green (Hi i’m an older version of Royce White!), Cunningham (I gets to the FT Line!)
- Brown Blocks:
Bernard, Hamilton, Barton.
- The All Green:
Will Barton, MKG
- The Young And Average:
MKG, T. Robinson, D. Waiters, A. Moultrie, J. Lamb, T. Jones, W. Barton, T. Ross, J. Cunningham,
What can we get from this? Bernard James is 26 years old and Mark Cuban is a genius for drafting a productive player who’ll instantly be a crowd favorite. Everyone loves a soldier.
Jared Cunningham is a pretty good buy. A Junior that could easily spike up from 7 to 10. Others have. His charts are fairly green with the only glaring spot being his rebounding. Hamilton isn’t a bad lower round pick either. He’s a senior but look at the FT line. He gets there and he makes it. Very transferable to the NBA. Carve out a decent bench career.
Will Barton! Young, defensive, Growing–this guys is pretty great. Trailblazers gonna kick some arse. They’ve done some amazing drafting this year.
The young guns were listed in order of greatness. I think MKG will outshine T Rob. I get the feeling that the sophomores that haven’t jumped production yet will require the full 3-4 years to get better. That includes the Terrences, Scott, waiters, lamb, green, Cunningham, Hummel, and Moultrie.
With the 2nd pick, which of the 3 would you choose? Beal, MKG, or T Rob? I’d have chosen the person who’s fighting for his sister. T Robinson will try harder than most guys his age. He’s got a kid to raise.
Beal is the natural though. High production, shooter’s confidence to withstand the crushing despair of NBA Scoring, the defensive stats to rely on to help win games, and YOUTH!
But the one who was picked was MKG. Just looking at his production, I feel like he doesn’t have enough to make a big difference immediately, nor equipped with the right tools to learn quickly. I feel like he’s going to need his entire rookie contract to reach his full potential. It’s incredibly hard to criticize this tier since Young And Average necessitates predicting growth. Their all good enough to gamble on. I would probably have held off on Jeremy Lamb.
[TIER 2]: Will Barton, Thomas Robinson, (Terrence..Ross? maybe?)
Maybe I should have paginated this. In any case, in this page, we’re looking for GROWTH and YOUTH. These guys have inconsistent careers so they need to show they can improve.
- The Standouts:
Kevin Jones, Andrew Nicholson, Scott Machado. I know James Brocato likes KJ, but look at all those Red Flags. Let’s go with Scott Machado. Nicholson…went to the Magic? The Magic have a decent FO. Theoretically, Nicholson could replace Andersen. Theoretically.
The Young And Deadly:
The Young and Toothless:
Moe Harkless, Meyers, White. Lol. look at these scores. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry that they all got drafted. The Blazers knew what they were doing with Meyers though. Best positional flags out of the bunch. Did I mention that 7 is the NBA average. It’s GREAT that ROYCE plays like a point guard. But he should really play the other aspects of basketball too. Like winning.
Now to criticize the Draft Choices:
Bucks: Yeah. I know you don’t like Monta Ellis. I’m glad you found another defense-lacking streaky SG to backup your defense-challenged streaky SG. Good job, Hammond. Why must I be fans of teams that are so damaged?
NOLA: Yeah, good pick. Wow. I messed up the rebound coloring. the %TOT is rebounds. 50% less Rebounds is not GREEN folks. I’m a moron. Much like the Hornets for picking Darius Miller.
RAPTORS: Quincy Acy. Average Production. Inconsistent. And OLD. Good job Raptors. That was sarcasm.
[TIER 3] Scott Machado +2/+91%, Andrew Nicholson +1.5/+38%
prediction: Machado = Starter PG, Nicholson, Bench PF
At first, I thought the Denver Nuggets front office were morons for choosing Quincy Miller. Turns out their just morons for picking 2 foreigners.
But there are no real bad flags for Quincy. For a freshman, this isn’t bad.
I’m just going to dive right into it here. Because we’ve got a lot of stupid picks here.
- Marshall has 5 flags.
- Barnes is somehow a Top 10 Pick based on the fact that he gets to the free throw line a lot? He has the worst production outside of Austin Rivers.
- Drummond can’t shoot free throws.
- PJ3 : Presti, you moron. I had such high hopes for you.
- Ezeli: Lol. a 3. that’s a -4 guys. He’s 66% of an average center in one of the worst draft years for centers. Golden State, you are awesome.
- Lol. Miami is just trolling with Justin Hamilton. Is there a decree that if you’re young and tall, you get picked no matter what? Robert Sacre is an awesome pick for the Lakers! In Bizarro world.
- DJO. ONce again, the Mavs have robbed another NBA team. Enjoy DJO, Lakers. I’m counting the days when the Lakers become the new definition of dysfunctional franchise. Right now, that mantle belongs to the Knicks. (I’m actually a huge fan of Grunwald and of the Knicks. Romantically. In the sense that I think Camelot is an allegory for world peace. And that Excalibur is a living embodiment of hope.) That’s TWICE the mavericks have sold off junk picks to another team.
It looks like Detroit Pistons’ Kim English safe bet and Drummondic gamble is leading the way here. Kendall Marshall following close behind as the next Steve Nash. Unfortunately, they are all doomed. See you next year, guys.
[TIER 4] Marshall, Quincy Miller (This is an awful Tier to be on.)
Ooh. Pistons take another winner in Khris Middleton. I don’t even have to research him to know that he’s going to have an injury next year. No one has those scores, plays SF, and smiles like a goat without an injury. I made up that goat part.
Wroten! Mr. Get To The Line! Except you can’t shoot free throws…A -3 Freshman can improve, right? Actually, Wroten might. Lots of green flags.
Tyshawn Taylor! Portland just used you to rob the heck out of the Nets. How do you feel? Great.
Austin Rivers! Mr. 10th Pick!. How’s that -4 treating you?
I didn’t want to be so snarky but all these picks are horrible. That Austin Rivers picks is just terrible. Marquis Teague may be the worst pick in the draft.
Gar Forman of the Bulls, I salute you for picking somoen with less production than Austin Rivers. It is quite an achievement.
[TIER 5 PICK: Wroten]
******P.S. The %Total Rebounds all all GREEN. I know. It’s a logic error. I’m too lazy to fix it.
Based on the amount of greens, i’d say the Mavericks and the Blazers clearly won the draft of 2012.