2012 Draft is a Shallow Draft! Move up, guys. Move up!

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If it’s such a deep draft why are the Bucks and the Houston Rockets looking to move up?

Here’s the research I did a month ago on the positional averages for the last two seaasons.

*20minutes, 10games+ playing time

 POS  AVG  2010 RAWS40 2011 RAWS40
. 1.0 3.941 4.068 3.813
. 1.5 4.012 3.785 4.238
. 2.0 3.592 3.870 3.314
. 2.5 3.900 3.992 3.808
. 3.0 5.346 5.581 5.111
. 3.5 6.572 6.735 6.410
. 4.0 7.138 7.094 7.181
. 4.5 7.796 7.712 7.880
. 5.0 7.324 7.890 6.758
. POS 2010RAWS40 2011RAWS40
. NCAA AVERAGE 5.513 5.636 5.390
. avg POS avg(2YR.RAWS40) avg RAWS40 across all positions

See the difference? Let’s dissect Point Guards. The average Point guard in 2010 had an average RAWS40 of 4.068. Kryie Irving was in that draft so yeah. But it wasn’t just Kyrie Irving. There was:

Kyrie Iriving, Norris Cole, Kemba Walker, Fredette, All

Season 10′  highest WS40 point guards.
I left out the ones that went undrafted. Like Derwin Kitchen (8.73 RAWS40) He’ll be 26 in 2012!

In any case, the strength of the 2010 class was bolstered heavily by Kyrie Irving. Check the chart below.

*A PRAWS40 of 7 is an Avg NBA Player. For example, Kyrie Irving is 11 so he would be a + 4

Name 2010
PRAWS40
 2010 2011 WP48 WP48 Translation 
. Kyrie Irving 11.13  Drafted. .119  Starter
. Norris Cole 8.03  Drafted. -.108 Super Scrub
. C.J. McCollum 7.58  Nope. Nope.  NA 2012 PRAWS40: 10.0 3+ Better than NBA Bench
. Kemba Walker 7.53  Drafted  .011  Scrub
. Jimmer Fredette 7.23  Drafted  -.065  Scrub+
. Iman Shumpert 7.18  Drafted  .5  Bench
. Damian Lillard 7.03     (In NCAA ’11, he has jumped up to 10.3 PRAWS40)

….
Kyrie Irving is a +4. Norris is a +1.

Everyone else is a fraction over the NBA average. Not very good man. Not very good at all. The only person who did well was the person who didn’t need to play point guard due to a freak Lin Accident.(Shumpert!)

Of course, you need a full four years before you can fully tell whether a rookie is good or not. Still, if you have just 3 years to make use of a first round pick…why wouldn’t you pick the +3s and +4s? So you don’t have to waste that first year training them?

In any case, I’ve stablished that the 2010 crop of point guards isn’t up to WS40 standards.

How does 2011 fare?

The Average PRAWS40 score is a full .20 less. That doesn’t seem like much so let’s create the top PG list again for NCAA ’11.

Name 2011 PRAWS40
. Damian Lillard 10.28 +3
. Jesse Sanders 10.68 +3
. Nate Wolters 7.28  0
. Reggie Hamilton 7.88  0
. Phl Pressey 6.58  -1
. Scott Machado 8.98  +2
. Tu Holloway 5.58  -2
. Kendrick Perry 7.43  +1
. Aaron Craft 6.78  +1
. Ray McCallum 6.18  -1
. Pierre Jackson 6.03  -1
. Jordan Taylor 4.98  -2
. Kevin Pangos 5.88  -1
. Kendall Marshall 6.58  <—LOOK! Average!

.

We’ve got Two Seniors with +3s , two with 0s, and the rest are -1. Yes, the talent pool has shrunk. That’s with a 2 tenths decrease.

Let’s see the decrease per positions.

 POS  DELTA ’10/’11  2010 RAWS40 2011 RAWS40
. 1.0 -.2 4.068 3.813
. 1.5 +.5 3.785 4.238
. 2.0 -.5 3.870 3.314
. 2.5    -.2  3.992 3.808
. 3.0           -.4  5.581 5.111
. 3.5           -.3         6.735        6.410
. 4.0           +.1         7.094        7.181
. 4.5 +.1 7.712 7.880
. 5.0 -1.1 7.890 6.758

Why would anyone think that this draft is deep?
The 2010 NCAA is  on average .3 tenths of a point worse than 2011!

I won’t bore you with the charts on the combo guards which saw a huge gain and the power forward list which saw a nominal one. Here are the conclusions.

  • Pure point guards. There are no Kyrie Irving who was young and a +4. Our two best PGs are seniors AND +3s. Last year they were 0s. It would be good to revisit them and see if their careers map accordingly. If Lillard gets drafted, he might produce the same as say Kemba Walker in 2012-2013. That would be a nice experiment.
  • Combo Guards.
    C.J. McCollum happened. He’s now a junior with a +3. As young and good goes, he’s a great bet. Too bad he’s not in the draft. Aside from him we’ve got 4 or 5 0’s, and  a def. +1. Many of them aren’t in the draft. “Too crowded with people that don’t belong there”. Last year’s list had more +0’s though. But their highes was Old Man Kitchen with a +2.
  • There are 7 NBA quality SGs in 2011.
    There were 12 NBA quality SG in 2010.
  • There are 14 SF, shooter SFs in 2011. (7 are +1 or greater)
    There were  17 in 2010 (10 are +1 or greater)
  • The small forward/power forward position is just ridiculous. Sample is so small I shouldn’t even have wasted my time.
  • Power Forwards have traditionally been the most productive. And with Anthony Davis in this sample, raising the bar by .1 to .2 is actually quite a feat.
  • The Center situation is the most alarming. There really isn’t a big man. If the Bucks want a competent center. They shouldn’t even be looking at the draft this year. There just isn’t any good ones. There were 6 +1s last year. There are only Three this year. Cody Zeller isn’t in the draft. Sullinger is short and has a back injury. What the Bucks are looking for is Miles Plumlee and Tyler Zeller. But I just did the Bucks’ GM SmartyScore and if I’m right, their probably going to pick someone with a -1 like Meyers Leanord or Fab Melo. If they climb up the draft, that logic changes. They normally gamble anyways, the higher the pick the higher the reward. Doesn’t mean they still aren’t unwise wasteful gamblers.

Hopefully I’ve established the fact that this really isn’t a deep draft. Anything past pick 10 will probably hit dirt.

That explains why picks 12 and 14 (Bucks, rockets) are so eager to move up.

This research was done a month ago! I can’t believe it’s still useful. Score!

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2012 Draft Centers Palooza (Fixed)

. Name avg
POS
Rk.
. Kyle
O’Quinn
4.5 6
. Cody Zeller 5 2
. Eli Holman 4.5 5
. Tyler Zeller 5 1
. Jared
Sullinger
5 3
. John
Henson
4 12
. Ricardo
Ratliffe
4.5 2
. Miles
Plumlee
5 4
. Bernard
James
5 6
. Andrew
Nicholson
4.5 7
. Meyers
Leonard
4.5 13
. Andre
Drummond
5 8
. Henry Sims 4.5 25
. Name avg POS Rk. %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40 2011 PRAWS40 2YR AVG
. Kyle O’Quinn 4.5 6 1.18 1.13 1.06 1.06 1.15 1.03 1.11 0.81 1.59 0.55 1.33 1.28 1.06 1.06 1.31 1.21 1.07 0.94 1.59 1.29 1.11 1.31 1.39 8.63 8.95
. Cody Zeller 5 2 1.46 1.37 1.16 1.19 1.39 1.19 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.78 1.58 1.14 0.93 0.90 0.91 1.49 2.02 0.57 0.88 0.92 1.63 1.91 8.88 8.88
. Eli Holman 4.5 5 1.08 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.28 1.15 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.79 0.91 1.32 0.98 1.10 0.77 1.35 1.08 0.72 1.32 1.32 1.41 8.73 8.78
. Tyler Zeller 5 1 1.54 1.44 1.38 1.05 1.46 1.42 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.89 1.58 1.22 1.51 1.27 1.35 1.08 1.38 0.78 1.04 0.92 1.80 2.16 10.03 8.53
. Jared Sullinger 5 3 1.53 1.42 1.44 0.99 1.36 1.35 1.00 6.50 4.49 2.99 1.72 1.53 1.16 1.12 1.24 1.20 1.32 1.59 0.50 0.96 0.92 1.49 1.71 7.93 8.26
. John Henson 4 12 1.05 1.19 1.24 0.96 1.30 1.42 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.92 0.76 1.03 1.44 1.31 0.98 0.66 2.30 0.62 0.60 1.31 1.37 8.17 8.22
. Ricardo Ratliffe 4.5 2 1.24 1.43 1.10 1.28 1.49 1.17 1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.67 1.05 1.24 0.94 1.05 0.54 0.94 0.70 0.91 1.05 1.50 1.63 10.13 8.15
. Miles Plumlee 5 4 0.86 0.90 0.78 1.16 0.91 0.80 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.83 0.96 1.56 1.27 1.38 0.83 1.06 0.64 0.92 1.09 1.47 1.69 7.83 7.83
. Bernard James 5 6 1.02 1.13 0.98 1.16 1.14 1.01 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.89 0.83 1.21 1.12 1.15 0.58 1.17 1.21 1.15 0.68 1.36 1.53 7.08 7.76
. Andrew Nicholson 4.5 7 1.43 1.41 1.34 1.05 1.32 1.23 1.08 4.06 3.18 1.26 1.28 1.11 1.18 0.91 1.10 1.03 0.83 0.94 1.22 1.25 0.97 1.30 1.38 8.58 6.55
. Meyers Leonard 4.5 13 0.99 1.04 0.95 1.08 1.07 0.98 1.10 0.00 0.58 0.26 0.90 0.80 1.12 0.75 1.05 0.95 1.01 0.62 1.12 1.02 0.97 1.00 1.00 6.23 6.23
. Andre Drummond 5 8 0.94 1.14 1.12 1.03 1.16 1.14 1.02 0.00 0.32 0.00 0.31 0.68 0.45 1.29 0.91 1.05 0.50 1.27 1.35 0.84 0.75 1.11 1.16 5.38 5.38
. Henry Sims 4.5 25 0.98 0.90 1.05 0.85 0.94 1.12 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 1.19 1.08 0.67 0.87 0.80 2.97 0.94 0.93 1.55 1.05 0.58 0.46 2.88 2.88

Very sorry about the mis-post. Word press is kindah wonky today. It doesn’t like it when I fiddle around with html tables.In any case. This is the last of the series of Paloozas.

This table does not need to be this big. In fact, I should make a Apple 4 quadrants map and post it up.
There’s the old and good: Tyler Zeller.
There’s the young and bad: Everyone else.
There’s the old and bad:
And there’s the young and good:

Jared Sullinger. Sophomore Except he’s 6’7 wth long arms. And he can’t block. Assists, Rebounds and Blocks transfer over to the NBA from the NCAA north of 85% of the time. God, i’m sick of stretch forwards.

There’s John Henson, a junior, 6′ 9. 2.3x blocks! But…everything is normy.

Miles Plumlee. He can rebound. That’s about it.

I’ve included Cody Zeller, and Holman but their not in the draft. I just like their stats. Also Holman is short, got shot in college once, and skipped out half the year due to personal issues—meaning he got kicked off the team for doing something bad.

Turns out, Holman is in the draft as a 2nd rounder!

If you can get past the fact that Holman is such a nutcase, he is 5th in my rankings for center/forwards, 13th for my Power Forward list. He gives you consistent production. He’s aggressive. Everything else is average except for his STEAL and OREBS. He’s 6’8 with a 7’4 wingspan. He  is a senior though. He played in a competitive area and he’s got a decent 8 PAWS. I mean, you could do worse.

What you want from your center is rebounding and blocks. If Sullinger develops blocking ability–well, he would have by now–he’s not gonna. Your best rebounding blocker is Zeller. Followed by Miles Plumlee, and Henson.

Once those three get taken, your left with Meyers and Fab Melo. Like coffee stains.

School’s out! Have fun with the stats!

2012 Draft Power Forward Palooza

Because power forwards are so important in team play, i’ve included the entire gamut of stats. A little primer might be needed to understand them. This will be a page in the Glossary.

It is your normal set of box scores with a twist. Those numbers below are all percentages. Let’s take Anthony Davis. He made 98% of the average Field Goals a PF should make. It means he is 2% below Average. You can quickly scan and mark things down into trios.

Field Goals Made (FG), Field Goals Attempted (FGA), FG% are what I like to call ‘Points’

I’ve carved up the box scores into Three Sections

Scoring Stat Section: Points, Paint, Perimeter, Freebies. (with Respect to Turnovers and Assists.)

– A high scoring, high usage player with high turnovers and low assists is a danger flag.

People like Kevin Jones may get a high win score because he’s such a beast in the paint but I don’t like it. You take away his one weapon and he’s left with nothing to fall back on.

Defensive Stat Section: Rebounding, Blocks/PFouls, Steals/PFouls

– Defense is a gamble. Every steal or block is an opportunity for a foul.

Star Section: Assists/TOs

– Because point forwards are so rare and valuable, i’m almost willing to forgoe all the other sections if a player is spectacular in this.

*I run these sections thru my head for every pick. For Guards, the scoring stat section is more important. For Forwards, the defensive stat section is.

TWO Things to Note About This Chart

1. It includes 2011’s PRAWS40 at the end. It also includes the average between the last two seasons PRAWS40 contribution called 2YR PRAWS40. A bigger data set should more accurately reflect reality.

IF 2011 PRAWS40 > 2YR PRAWS40 then there was a DECLINE in productivity, year to year.

IF 2YR PRWS40 > 2011 PRAWS40 then that means GROWTH.

IF the two are EQUAL, then that means the player is relatively young or has only seen starter minutes recently.

. Name avg POS Rank
. Anthony Davis 4 1
. Marshawn Powell 4 2
. Arsalan Kazemi 4 3
. William Mosley 4.5 4
. Ricardo Ratliffe 4.5 5
. Doug McDermott 4 6
. Jack Cooley 4.5 7
. Trevor Mbakwe 4.5 8
. Andre Roberson 4 9
. Robert Covington 4 10
. Kevin Jones 4 11
. Julian Boyd 4 12
. Eli Holman 4.5 13
. Drew Gordon 4 14
. Kyle O’Quinn 4.5 15
. Andrew Nicholson 4.5 16
. Gregory Echenique 4 17
. Mike Glover 4 18
. Mike Muscala 4.5 19
. John Henson 4 20
. Eric Griffin 4 21
. Dennis Tinnon 4.5 22
. Mike Scott 4 23
. Thomas Robinson 4 24
. Mike Moser 4 25
. Javon McCrea 4 26
. Arnett Moultrie 4.5 27
. Quincy Acy 4 28
. De’Mon Brooks 4 29
. Draymond Green 4 30
. Mitchell Watt 4 31
. Gorgui Dieng 4 32
. Mason Plumlee 4.5 33
. Eric Moreland 4.5 34
. Greg Mangano 4 35
. C.J. Aiken 4 36
. Aaron White 4 37
. Meyers Leonard 4.5 38
. Name avg POS Rank
. Name avg POS Rank %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40 2011 PRAWS40 2YR PRAWS40
. Anthony Davis 4 1 0.99 0.98 0.81 1.20 1.06 0.87 1.21 0.17 0.37 0.49 1.17 1.10 1.06 1.09 1.30 1.24 0.92 1.39 3.34 0.45 0.65 2.12 2.36 14.02 14.02
. Marshawn Powell 4 2 2.03 2.09 1.50 1.38 2.28 1.56 1.46 0.00 1.16 0.00 2.19 2.10 1.03 1.38 0.92 1.07 1.61 1.56 1.61 2.55 1.53 1.84 2.01 11.97 8.55
. Arsalan Kazemi 4 3 0.92 0.83 0.73 1.15 0.91 0.83 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 1.32 1.02 1.03 1.48 1.33 1.67 2.29 0.75 0.93 0.95 1.73 1.88 11.17 8.53
. William Mosley 4.5 4 0.92 0.95 0.84 1.12 0.99 0.89 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.87 1.25 0.70 1.19 1.18 1.18 0.83 1.98 2.57 0.64 0.92 1.59 1.75 10.88 10.20
. Ricardo Ratliffe 4.5 5 1.24 1.43 1.10 1.28 1.49 1.17 1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.67 1.05 1.24 0.94 1.05 0.54 0.94 0.70 0.91 1.05 1.50 1.63 10.13 6.55
. Doug McDermott 4 6 1.61 1.64 1.41 1.16 1.48 1.26 1.17 3.30 2.44 1.58 1.25 1.04 1.19 0.88 1.03 0.98 0.75 0.25 0.06 0.97 0.60 1.55 1.67 9.92 10.23
. Jack Cooley 4.5 7 1.02 1.04 0.90 1.15 1.08 0.95 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.98 1.03 1.42 1.00 1.15 0.65 0.83 1.03 0.72 0.97 1.45 1.57 9.78 7.95
. Trevor Mbakwe 4.5 8 1.13 0.90 0.80 1.11 0.94 0.85 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.94 1.75 1.11 1.40 1.05 1.17 1.19 1.67 1.12 1.67 0.84 1.44 1.56 9.68 7.83
. Andre Roberson 4 9 0.86 0.82 0.83 0.98 0.78 0.79 0.99 1.21 1.10 1.23 0.99 1.06 0.92 1.21 1.51 1.41 0.87 1.39 1.44 0.83 0.85 1.51 1.62 9.62 7.35
. Robert Covington 4 10 1.28 1.22 1.21 1.02 0.93 0.88 1.06 4.34 3.41 1.45 1.02 0.87 1.16 1.09 0.90 0.96 0.98 1.64 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.46 1.55 9.22 10.51
. Kevin Jones 4 11 1.17 1.22 1.25 0.98 1.16 1.07 1.09 1.91 2.44 0.86 0.86 0.73 1.16 1.32 0.97 1.09 0.75 0.57 0.63 0.45 0.35 1.45 1.54 9.17 7.68
. Julian Boyd 4 12 1.44 1.37 1.28 1.07 1.35 1.26 1.07 1.56 1.34 1.36 1.64 1.48 1.10 1.06 1.44 1.32 0.69 0.57 0.52 1.07 1.17 1.40 1.48 8.82 8.50
. Eli Holman 4.5 13 1.08 1.23 1.09 1.12 1.28 1.15 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.79 0.91 1.32 0.98 1.10 0.77 1.35 1.08 0.72 1.32 1.32 1.41 8.73 9.03
. Drew Gordon 4 14 1.00 1.04 1.00 1.05 1.12 1.13 1.00 0.17 0.06 3.24 0.99 0.89 1.11 1.18 1.47 1.37 0.92 1.15 0.75 1.04 0.79 1.39 1.46 8.72 7.55
. Kyle O’Quinn 4.5 15 1.18 1.13 1.06 1.06 1.15 1.03 1.11 0.81 1.59 0.55 1.33 1.28 1.06 1.06 1.31 1.21 1.07 0.94 1.59 1.29 1.11 1.31 1.39 8.63 6.62
. Andrew Nicholson 4.5 16 1.43 1.41 1.34 1.05 1.32 1.23 1.08 4.06 3.18 1.26 1.28 1.11 1.18 0.91 1.10 1.03 0.83 0.94 1.22 1.25 0.97 1.30 1.38 8.58 7.76
. Gregory Echenique 4 17 0.91 0.92 0.79 1.17 1.01 0.91 1.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.02 1.01 1.00 1.35 1.09 1.16 0.63 0.49 1.55 0.90 1.01 1.34 1.41 8.37 6.38
. Mike Glover 4 18 1.22 1.28 1.04 1.23 1.40 1.19 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.17 1.22 0.97 1.12 0.97 1.02 0.69 0.98 0.81 1.10 0.95 1.34 1.41 8.37 6.10
. Mike Muscala 4.5 19 1.32 1.15 1.23 0.93 1.15 1.23 0.93 1.22 1.15 1.02 1.89 1.46 1.30 0.96 1.21 1.12 1.43 0.62 1.08 1.06 0.87 1.27 1.34 8.33 5.33
. John Henson 4 20 1.05 1.19 1.24 0.96 1.30 1.42 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.92 0.76 1.03 1.44 1.31 0.98 0.66 2.30 0.62 0.60 1.31 1.37 8.17 8.74
. Eric Griffin 4 21 1.16 1.12 0.96 1.18 1.16 0.98 1.18 0.87 0.79 1.19 1.35 1.58 0.85 1.03 1.11 1.09 1.15 0.98 1.78 1.24 1.17 1.28 1.34 7.97 8.37
. Dennis Tinnon 4.5 22 0.81 0.87 0.85 1.02 0.89 0.89 1.00 0.41 0.14 2.91 0.65 0.59 1.10 1.42 1.15 1.25 0.77 0.94 0.19 0.68 1.00 1.21 1.27 7.88 6.58
. Mike Scott 4 23 1.29 1.28 1.18 1.09 1.37 1.28 1.07 0.35 0.49 0.97 1.46 1.20 1.21 0.82 1.10 1.01 0.87 0.66 0.35 0.93 0.60 1.25 1.31 7.77 6.43
. Thomas Robinson 4 24 1.25 1.25 1.29 0.97 1.34 1.43 0.94 0.35 0.30 1.62 1.38 1.34 1.02 1.06 1.59 1.42 1.33 1.15 0.63 1.17 0.95 1.25 1.30 7.72 8.22
. Mike Moser 4 25 1.00 1.00 1.15 0.87 0.83 0.89 0.94 2.78 2.93 1.07 0.73 0.63 1.16 1.00 1.42 1.28 1.67 2.05 0.75 1.28 0.95 1.23 1.27 7.57 6.44
. Javon McCrea 4 26 1.31 1.45 1.30 1.10 1.58 1.49 1.06 0.00 0.06 0.00 1.02 1.20 0.83 1.32 0.92 1.05 1.73 1.31 1.09 1.21 1.34 1.23 1.27 7.57 7.28
. Arnett Moultrie 4.5 27 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.22 1.01 1.29 1.11 0.95 1.19 1.06 1.08 1.08 0.77 0.94 0.42 1.02 0.66 1.15 1.20 7.43 8.28
. Quincy Acy 4 28 0.90 0.83 0.75 1.11 0.90 0.84 1.07 0.17 0.12 1.94 1.25 1.08 1.17 1.03 0.92 0.95 0.75 0.98 1.44 0.86 1.12 1.20 1.24 7.37 7.57
. De’Mon Brooks 4 29 1.55 1.59 1.57 1.02 1.56 1.52 1.04 1.91 1.83 1.19 1.28 1.20 1.08 1.26 0.95 1.05 0.81 1.48 0.52 1.04 1.55 1.20 1.24 7.37 6.61
. Draymond Green 4 30 1.10 1.03 1.19 0.87 0.85 0.97 0.88 2.95 2.68 1.26 1.07 0.97 1.08 0.76 1.45 1.22 2.65 1.48 0.63 1.24 0.93 1.18 1.22 7.27 7.74
. Mitchell Watt 4 31 1.21 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.24 1.16 1.07 0.87 0.91 1.05 1.30 1.16 1.11 0.82 1.00 0.94 1.79 0.66 1.67 1.17 1.04 1.18 1.22 7.27 6.03
. Gorgui Dieng 4 32 0.62 0.66 0.65 1.01 0.72 0.74 0.97 0.00 0.06 1.62 0.57 0.57 1.01 1.24 0.97 1.06 0.75 1.15 2.24 0.83 1.09 1.16 1.19 7.07 7.57
. Mason Plumlee 4.5 33 0.91 0.92 0.87 1.05 0.95 0.92 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.94 1.17 0.81 1.06 1.25 1.19 1.37 1.14 1.08 1.17 0.95 1.10 1.12 6.98 5.88
. Eric Moreland 4.5 34 0.59 0.56 0.59 0.94 0.57 0.60 0.94 0.41 0.29 0.97 0.73 0.96 0.76 1.06 1.31 1.22 1.31 1.56 1.73 1.06 1.29 1.03 1.04 6.43 7.45
. Greg Mangano 4 35 1.27 1.27 1.38 0.91 1.11 1.15 0.97 2.78 2.99 1.08 1.07 1.08 0.98 1.15 1.14 1.14 0.35 0.41 1.61 0.83 0.93 1.07 1.08 6.42 6.23
. C.J. Aiken 4 36 0.78 0.79 0.76 1.03 0.68 0.57 1.23 1.91 2.19 0.99 0.57 0.54 1.07 0.35 0.75 0.62 0.87 0.49 2.59 0.48 0.49 1.06 1.07 6.37 7.04
. Aaron White 4 37 1.05 0.97 1.00 0.97 0.93 0.88 1.05 1.39 1.77 0.90 1.25 1.20 1.04 1.03 0.85 0.91 0.87 1.23 0.63 0.83 0.95 1.04 1.05 6.27 5.33
. Meyers Leonard 4.5 38 0.99 1.04 0.95 1.08 1.07 0.98 1.10 0.00 0.58 0.26 0.90 0.80 1.12 0.75 1.05 0.95 1.01 0.62 1.12 1.02 0.97 1.00 1.00 6.23 5.35
. Name avg POS Rank %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40 2011 PRAWS40 2YR PRAWS40

Let’s start.

1. Anthony Davis

He’s so sickeningly the first choice that I don’t even want to talk about how well he finishes around the rim. FT needs work…who am i kidding. The clear first pick. For comparison, Tim Duncan was a 10 PRAWS40 College Senior. A quick glance at the 4 primary stats show that Duncan was at least a 12 during his sophomore year.

2. 2013 Draftees.

Marshawn Powell, Kazemi, McDermott, Jack Cooley, Covington, Roberson

It is frightening how many of the top bigs are up for grabs next year. Powell is a monster. High turnovers, but high usage scoring machine. Low defensive rebounds but an offensive rebounding fiend. Improving upwards nicely.

I know I shouldn’t talk about next year’s prospects but Covington and McDermott need to be spoken about.  Covington shoots 45% better than average PF McDermott shoots 60% better! In my list of 3 shooters who are better than average NCAA players, McDermott is number 1 at 48.6%. On average, he makes 2 out of 4 treys per game. And he still rebounds. Baller. Covington is in 6th place.

Aside from Andrew Nicholson, McDermott and Covington are the only Power Forwards in the top 10 NCAA trey shooters.

3. Mbawke (junior), Ratcliffe, Kevin Jones

They went from 7s to 9s. Not bad. KJ is a favorite of wagesofwins. Offensively, both high usage and offensively efficient. FT% great. Offensive Rebounds, great. Average DREBs. Below average assist/blocks/steals. I am not as gungho about Kevin Jones as other people are. But he is a 9 PRAWS40. With good Offensive Rebounds. Trending upward. Not a bad choice if you need some offense in your roster (cough sixers). He makes 2x as much treys but shots 3x as much. His 3pt efficiency is 14% less than average. I just can’t recommend him despite him being a 9. He has ONE trick. It’s a very good trick but it’s only one trick.

Ratcliffe went from a 8 to a 10. Very similar to Jones but with a spike in points. He scores 25% more than the average 4. Everything else is average. Defensive stats are below average. Rebounds are at a respectable 20%. He is the better KJ.

Mbawke. A mixed bag. 20% more assists but with 67% more turnovers. But good steals/blocks and 40% better OREBs. Decent FT rate. The guy gets to the foul line and makes it 2x more than his peers. A brawler.

If I had to choose, I’d pick Mbawke. The problems with turnovers can be alleviated with good passing guards. He’s younger by a year as well.

I will always lean toward the Pick with the better Defensive Stat Section

4.  Julain Boyd -Poor kid had a heart problem last year.

5. Eli Holman – 6’7… but with a 7’4 wingspan.

Ranks 13 on my PF list. 35% more steals but 32% more turnovers. 12% fg efficiency but only 8% better point scoring. Other stuff is average sauce. 30+% better OREBs. eh. Not an impressive year. But still quite a good player. Seems like he uses a lot of effort to run around in circles. a Constant 8-9 score is still 3 points above average NBA players. I really expected better blocks. Only 8% better.

6. The Crazy 8s.

John Henson, Drew Gordon, Kyle O’Quinn, Andrew Nicholson, Eric Griffin

Out of this whole group, the one with the best Defensive Stat Section is Drew Gordon, his steal percentage and offensive rebounds making up for his lack of blocks. His scoring is economical and efficient. He sports a 11% Above Average FT% as well. The %PRAWS indicate that he is the best buy as well.

Kyle O’Quinn is better defensively than Nicholson by a good margin but at the expense of being 14% more foul prone than Nicholson. But 20% more rebs and 20% more blocks more than cover it. It’s really a toss up on who’s better scoring paint points. Both are average with Kyle being more aggressive. Nicholson is a better shooter by far as he hits 1 out ever 2.2 treys per game. His ft% rate is better as is the general case of good perimeter players. But Kyle gets to the line more often. I give the edge to Kyle.

Henson and Griffin were much better last year which made me google them for injury. Henson suffered from a sprained wrist.. Griffin has only been playing basketball for 6 years. If we look at there Def. Section, Henson is the clear winner. In fact, he is the clear leader of the entire group in blocked shots. Offensively, Eric Gordon is 20% better than Henson both in the paint and at the perimeter. But I see that as a wash since he has 15% more Pfouls than avg. Henson’s offense this year has been underwhelming. But because of the injury, I think Henson is a better bet. He also commits 40% less personal fouls than average.

I think Henson is the best choice out of this series while Gordon is the safest.

7. Thomas Robinson, Javon McCrea.

Oh this is fun. Both are high usage players. 20% Above Average PF in scoring but Javon is 10% more efficent than average and 12% better at the paint than Robinson. Javon is a horrible free throw shooter while Robinson is average. If we look at the defensive side, Javon’s got high orebs but due to high usage, he might just be grabbing his own misses. Defensively i conisder both a wash. Javon is technically better but has 30+% more fouls than average.

On the turnover side, TR is 17% above avg, while Javon is 21%. But Javon assists 73% more to TRob’s paltry 33.

I’d vote for Javon.

8. Meyers Leanord.

I just wanted to include Meyers in the analysis because of all the draft talk about him. As you can see above, he is completely average to below average. His two saving graces is that he shoots 12% above ft% average and he blocks 12% better than average. Which, in the great scheme of things, still makes him below average.

His %PRAWS is exactly 1.00

He is exactly Average. Whoever drafts him, probably already has someone on the bench exactly like him.

≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈

Oh my god, this list was long.

If I can’t have Anthony Davis, it would have to be Mbawke William Mosley with Drew Gordon as my safety pick.

Javon McCrea is the only one amongst this group with a Star Section.

If I wanted to pick a breakout star, fully well knowing that stars are barely 7% of the market, I might pick Javon.

#Whoops. He plans to stay in college and graduate!

Update: Whoops. Mbawke has a torn ACL and has to prove himself in college again. Can’t Believe I didn’t write about William Mosley. I forgot that I had already written about him. Check him out here.

Any Questions?

feel free to hit me up on twitter.

@twitter

The Top 30 2012 Draft List

If you don’t understand what PRAWS40 is, please check the Pages on the left hand side.
2012 Rankings by Percentage Better than Peers

. RANK Name avg POS
. 1 Anthony Davis 4
. 2 Jesse Sanders 1
. 3 Damian Lillard 1
. 4 Tyler Zeller 5
. 5 Marcus Denmon 2
. 6 Marshawn Powell 4
. 7 Will Barton 2.5
. 8 Cody Zeller 5
. 9 Scott Machado 1
. 10 Arsalan Kazemi 4
. 11 Jae Crowder 3.5
. 12 C.J. McCollum 1.5
. 13 William Mosley 4.5
. 14 Jared Sullinger 5
. 15 John Jenkins 2
. 16 Miles Plumlee 5
. 17 Reggie Hamilton 1
. 18 Doug McDermott 4
. 19 Ken Horton 3.5
. 20 Jeff Withey 5
. 21 Bradley Beal 2
. 22 Ricardo Ratliffe 4.5
. 23 Andre Roberson 4
. 24 Orlando Johnson 2
. 25 Kendrick Perry 1
. 26 Jack Cooley 4.5
. 27 Trevor Mbakwe 4.5
. 28 Nate Wolters 1
. 29 Robert Covington 4
. 30 Kevin Jones 4
. RANK Name avg POS %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40 avg PRAWS40
. 1 Anthony Davis 4 0.99 0.98 0.81 1.20 1.06 0.87 1.21 0.17 0.37 0.49 1.17 1.10 1.06 1.09 1.30 1.24 0.92 1.39 3.34 0.45 0.65 2.12 2.36 15.25
. 2 Jesse Sanders 1 0.86 0.82 0.72 1.15 1.04 0.96 1.11 0.35 0.33 1.03 1.17 1.15 1.02 4.19 1.77 2.21 1.62 0.86 0.57 1.01 0.92 2.57 2.28 9.8
. 3 Damian Lillard 1 1.71 1.56 1.41 1.10 1.37 1.23 1.11 1.97 1.70 1.19 2.02 1.76 1.15 0.81 1.58 1.44 0.82 1.04 1.70 0.88 0.88 2.47 2.19 9.4
. 4 Tyler Zeller 5 1.54 1.44 1.38 1.05 1.46 1.42 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.89 1.58 1.22 1.51 1.27 1.35 1.08 1.38 0.78 1.04 0.92 1.80 2.16 12.15
. 5 Marcus Denmon 2 1.23 1.19 1.10 1.08 0.93 0.85 1.09 1.65 1.43 1.17 1.18 0.93 1.22 0.95 1.22 1.13 0.95 1.23 0.00 0.52 0.43 2.53 2.03 8.4
. 6 Marshawn Powell 4 2.03 2.09 1.50 1.38 2.28 1.56 1.46 0.00 1.16 0.00 2.19 2.10 1.03 1.38 0.92 1.07 1.61 1.56 1.61 2.55 1.53 1.84 2.01 13.2
. 7 Will Barton 2.5 1.20 1.25 1.09 1.15 1.47 1.28 1.16 0.71 0.75 1.00 1.24 1.21 1.03 1.49 1.46 1.46 1.34 1.22 1.33 0.93 0.80 2.27 1.96 8.65
. 8 Cody Zeller 5 1.46 1.37 1.16 1.19 1.39 1.19 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.78 1.58 1.14 0.93 0.90 0.91 1.49 2.02 0.57 0.88 0.92 1.63 1.91 11
. 9 Scott Machado 1 0.92 0.99 0.84 1.17 1.07 0.93 1.16 0.81 0.69 1.17 0.83 0.79 1.06 1.35 1.37 1.39 2.00 1.10 1.14 1.21 1.15 2.12 1.91 8.1
. 10 Arsalan Kazemi 4 0.92 0.83 0.73 1.15 0.91 0.83 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 1.32 1.02 1.03 1.48 1.33 1.67 2.29 0.75 0.93 0.95 1.73 1.88 12.4
. 11 Jae Crowder 3.5 1.22 1.16 1.13 1.02 1.01 0.88 1.15 1.93 1.98 1.03 1.20 1.11 1.08 0.79 1.25 1.10 1.46 2.29 0.96 0.62 0.90 1.80 1.82 11.55
. 12 C.J. McCollum 1.5 1.52 1.49 1.49 1.00 1.64 1.67 0.98 1.15 1.20 1.05 1.82 1.69 1.07 1.72 1.75 1.74 0.98 1.74 2.53 0.96 0.94 2.06 1.82 8.75
. 13 William Mosley 4.5 0.92 0.95 0.84 1.12 0.99 0.89 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.87 1.25 0.70 1.19 1.18 1.18 0.83 1.98 2.57 0.64 0.92 1.59 1.75 12.55
. 14 Jared Sullinger 5 1.53 1.42 1.44 0.99 1.36 1.35 1.00 6.50 4.49 2.99 1.72 1.53 1.16 1.12 1.24 1.20 1.32 1.59 0.50 0.96 0.92 1.49 1.71 10.05
. 15 John Jenkins 2 1.43 1.33 1.20 1.12 0.79 0.70 1.13 2.29 1.86 1.26 1.29 1.10 1.14 0.40 0.75 0.66 0.55 0.68 0.94 0.71 0.55 2.04 1.70 6.75
. 16 Miles Plumlee 5 0.86 0.90 0.78 1.16 0.91 0.80 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.83 0.96 1.56 1.27 1.38 0.83 1.06 0.64 0.92 1.09 1.47 1.69 9.95
. 17 Reggie Hamilton 1 1.77 1.64 1.54 1.05 1.40 1.39 1.00 2.14 1.80 1.22 1.99 1.76 1.14 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.03 1.35 0.57 1.37 1.23 1.84 1.68 7
. 18 Doug McDermott 4 1.61 1.64 1.41 1.16 1.48 1.26 1.17 3.30 2.44 1.58 1.25 1.04 1.19 0.88 1.03 0.98 0.75 0.25 0.06 0.97 0.60 1.55 1.67 11.15
. 19 Ken Horton 3.5 1.26 1.22 1.22 1.00 1.12 0.99 1.14 1.74 1.98 0.94 1.23 1.03 1.18 1.05 1.15 1.11 1.17 1.77 1.35 0.91 0.84 1.65 1.66 10.55
. 20 Jeff Withey 5 0.96 0.83 0.81 1.02 0.84 0.83 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.42 1.21 1.20 0.91 1.05 1.00 0.99 1.06 2.06 0.77 0.96 1.45 1.66 9.8
. 21 Bradley Beal 2 1.04 0.99 0.95 1.05 0.98 0.87 1.13 1.00 1.05 0.97 1.24 1.17 1.05 1.27 1.63 1.54 1.03 1.09 2.36 0.93 0.95 1.96 1.65 6.5
. 22 Ricardo Ratliffe 4.5 1.24 1.43 1.10 1.28 1.49 1.17 1.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.67 1.05 1.24 0.94 1.05 0.54 0.94 0.70 0.91 1.05 1.50 1.63 11.8
. 23 Andre Roberson 4 0.86 0.82 0.83 0.98 0.78 0.79 0.99 1.21 1.10 1.23 0.99 1.06 0.92 1.21 1.51 1.41 0.87 1.39 1.44 0.83 0.85 1.51 1.62 10.85
. 24 Orlando Johnson 2 1.39 1.40 1.32 1.06 1.43 1.49 0.97 1.30 1.09 1.23 1.41 1.44 0.95 1.51 1.24 1.33 1.34 0.89 2.12 1.04 0.83 1.87 1.59 6.2
. 25 Kendrick Perry 1 1.16 1.23 1.07 1.14 1.26 1.02 1.23 1.16 1.14 1.03 1.02 1.12 0.92 0.81 0.97 0.95 0.80 1.65 1.70 0.79 0.88 1.72 1.58 6.55
. 26 Jack Cooley 4.5 1.02 1.04 0.90 1.15 1.08 0.95 1.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.98 1.03 1.42 1.00 1.15 0.65 0.83 1.03 0.72 0.97 1.45 1.57 11.45
. 27 Trevor Mbakwe 4.5 1.13 0.90 0.80 1.11 0.94 0.85 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.94 1.75 1.11 1.40 1.05 1.17 1.19 1.67 1.12 1.67 0.84 1.44 1.56 11.35
. 28 Nate Wolters 1 1.43 1.53 1.45 1.06 1.95 1.76 1.11 0.64 0.92 0.70 1.51 1.49 1.02 1.35 1.43 1.42 1.18 1.16 0.57 0.82 0.84 1.68 1.55 6.4
. 29 Robert Covington 4 1.28 1.22 1.21 1.02 0.93 0.88 1.06 4.34 3.41 1.45 1.02 0.87 1.16 1.09 0.90 0.96 0.98 1.64 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.46 1.55 10.45
. 30 Kevin Jones 4 1.17 1.22 1.25 0.98 1.16 1.07 1.09 1.91 2.44 0.86 0.86 0.73 1.16 1.32 0.97 1.09 0.75 0.57 0.63 0.45 0.35 1.45 1.54 10.4
.

SCROLL HORIZONTALLY.

The graph above shows the percentages. Generally, good stats like points you’d want above 1.25 as taht would mean you are 25% than the average player in your position. This is all done in preparation of 2012 Draft Day because I’m sure GMs are going to draft on size and potential rather than production. The philosophy is kindah dumb because most draft picks using that scheme requires a bit of training to reach their potential—while the older ones are already NBA ready.

In any case, you can tell that the inclusion of Anthony Davis has scared away some good 4s and 5s. Cody Zeller, Powell, and Kazemi are all too scared to enter the draft for various reasons. Powell in particular has had a tremendous year.

On to the analysis:
1. Anthony Davis is far and away the number one draft pick. %AVG PRAWS40 means he’s 2.36x better than the average Power Forward.
2. Bradley Beal is a strictly Average player. 6PRAWS40 is the average NBA player. The thing is… Harden was a high 8 before regressing a point in his softmore year.  Hickory High has Beal Similarity Scores closer to Shannon Brown than anyone. I just see better picks. I will be doing an explanation of his Similarity Scores in the Right Hand Corner of this page soon. I quite like it. It’s not as simple as Win Score or Points Over Par but it’s a lot more fine tuned. Like a finer filter for already filtered coffee.

3. The Point Guard Prospects are really thin. Basically, it boils down to Jesse Sanders, Lillard, and Machado. Machado is for you real gamblers. Lillard is a score first point guard, with better steals and blocks. He is 18% below average PGs in assists. Jesse Sanders is 1.62x better than the average PG in Assists. However, Lillard is nearly 2x better than the average PG in 3pt% while Sanders has only 35% of the normal PGs 3pt%. It’s basically the difference between 35 and 40, though. Sanders has better rebounds though. Generally, I’d be happy with either. I do prefer Sanders as Lillard’s strength (shooting) is a random force that doesn’t reliably translate to the NBA world.

4. The Centers. Jared Sullinger, Zeller, Miles Plumlee. The most surprising thing is T. Zeller’s younger brother, Cody. As a freshman, he’s putting up better numbers than his brother. I think his brother’s been teaching him. Heartwarming, really.

Tyler Zeller’s Hickory Sim pegs him near Channing Frye.

J. Sullinger pegs him as Damion Jones

Orlando Johnson is pegged as Randy Foye

Machado is stuck between Marcus and Deron Williams. Choose your poison.

Denmon is stuck between Luther Head(who?) and Afflalo

It’s surprising that Quinn didn’t place high on my list but as 4.5s go, there is a heavy load of great 4.5s putting up great stats. Ratcliffe was destroyed by Quinn both times they played against each other in the PIT so there might be something wrong here. But ratcliffe is 6’7 only. In any case, Zeller is the clear choice for center.

For all those people that like Meyer’s more…

. Name avg POS %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40
. Meyers Leonard 4.5 0.99 1.04 0.95 1.08 1.07 0.98 1.10 0.00 0.58 0.26 0.90 0.80 1.12 0.75 1.05 0.95 1.01 0.62 1.12 1.02 0.97 1.00 1.00
. Tyler Zeller 5 1.54 1.44 1.38 1.05 1.46 1.42 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.89 1.58 1.22 1.51 1.27 1.35 1.08 1.38 0.78 1.04 0.92 1.80 2.16

Meyers may have better blocks but Zeller has everything else. Meyers is a 1.00 in the %avgPRAWS meter. He is exactly an average PF/C. EXACTLY.

5. The 4.5 position is strangely competitve. You have Mbawke and Cooley neck and neck. Mbawke has the turnovers or else he’d be much higher. I will be doing my Power Forward list soon so I’ll save the analysis till then. But it seems from early looks on those who’ve entered the draft, seems like it’s Mosley, Ratcliffe (his block% is troubling) and Mbawke with the top defending potentials. (The ones higher up on the list don’t seem to have entered into the draft pool.) I like Mosley myself.

Please enjoy the stats. Hit me up on twitter: bballpants, if you have any questions.

PS. I relooked at the 3pt% just to see what numbers popped up and Jared Sullinger is shooting 3x better than the average power forward at the three. He’s making .6 shots every 1.4 attempts every 40 minutes.

2012 Draft Small Forward Palooza

Before we begin, I’d like you to understand the Rankings. It’s based on PRAWS40 of their 2011 and 2010 seasons. I discount ‘training years so that a bad first year or won’t corrupt their score. Some players take longer to learn the ropes.

The Average PRAWS40 (high usage) for this NCAA ’11 is 6. (Or more accurately, 5.4)

To keep it in perspective, Kenneth Faried in 2010 was 13.4.

Kawhi Leanord was a 9

Klay Thompson was a 6.7

I will probably post up the raw data if I think it’s useful. But I’m pretty sure everyone has their own data dumps.

Name 2011PRAWS40 2010PRAWS40 POS 2011FT% 2010FT% 2012PRAWS40 RANK
. Ken Horton 10.38 10.63 3.50 80.20 86.90 10.51 1
. Jae Crowder 11.38 9.03 3.50 73.50 61.60 10.21 2
. Devon Collier 9.48 NA 3.50 63.00 NA 9.48 3
. Branden Dawson 9.09 NA 3.00 59.40 NA 9.09 4
. Otto Porter 8.74 NA 3.00 70.20 NA 8.74 5
. Dominique Sutton 8.69 NA 3.00 66.40 NA 8.69 6
. Tony Mitchell 8.13 9.09 3.50 67.70 65.80 8.61 7
. Wendell McKines 8.48 NA 3.50 76.00 NA 8.48 8
. Chris Johnson 8.79 7.79 3.00 84.80 83.00 8.29 9
. Will Yeguete 8.28 NA 3.50 35.90 NA 8.28 10
. Deshaun Thomas 8.13 NA 3.50 74.80 NA 8.13 11
. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 7.74 NA 3.00 74.50 NA 7.74 12
. Travis Wear 7.68 NA 3.50 79.10 NA 7.68 13
. Jeffery Taylor 7.54 NA 3.00 60.50 NA 7.54 14
. Reggie Bullock 7.34 NA 3.00 72.70 NA 7.34 15
. Elias Harris 8.28 6.38 3.50 67.20 77.20 7.33 16
. John Shurna 7.78 6.78 3.50 75.30 70.70 7.28 17
. Terrence Jones 7.68 6.88 3.50 62.70 64.60 7.28 18
. Solomon Hill 8.09 6.04 3.00 72.40 78.00 7.07 19
. Lamar Patterson 7.04 NA 3.00 77.10 NA 7.04 20
. Robbie Hummel 6.98 NA 3.50 82.50 NA 6.98 21
. Travis McKie 6.09 7.84 3.00 73.70 73.10 6.97 22
. Hollis Thompson 5.84 7.99 3.00 67.90 72.00 6.92 23
. Dominique Morrison 6.19 7.09 3.00 82.50 78.00 6.64 24
. Melvin Ejim 7.28 5.98 3.50 76.20 69.50 6.63 25
. Chace Stanback 6.43 6.83 3.50 82.00 80.30 6.63 26
. Bradford Burgess 4.89 8.29 3.00 79.30 75.30 6.59 27
. Rakim Sanders 6.58 NA 3.50 63.50 NA 6.58 28
. Dane Miller 8.09 4.79 3.00 71.60 54.90 6.44 29
. Moe Harkless 6.44 NA 3.00 67.60 NA 6.44 30

1. Ken Horton

. A A F F A A A A F F A F A F A A A A A A A A A
. Pts FG FGA FG% 2Pt 2PtA 2P% 3Pt 3PtA 3P% FTM FTA FT% Off Def TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs PFs RAWS40 PRAWS40
. AA AA 13.46 , 16.2 50.38 , 49.1 AA AA AA AA 3.29 , 6.1 33.11 , 31.3 AA 5.4 , 5.2 AA 3.22 , 3.2 AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA AA
.

The Chart above is an example of a Grading Scale. AA would be ‘above average.’ I’m working on making it more granular. It generally allows me to see at a glance what particular weaknesses a person has.
Ken Horton is pretty good. The only niggle is that he’s super streaky. He made twice as many 3 pointers as the average combo SF. He’s slightly below average in FG% as well. He’s not a light outs shooter but the guy does mix it up.

2. Jae Crowder
He’s just beastly. His main stat weakness is his offensive rebounds and blocks so he might serve better as a guard. He has 2x the average steals, half the turnovers, nearly twice the average 3pt rate and attempts. Generally, 1.5x better than your average sf. His stats as compared to sg/sf averages are also decent. He is 6 ‘ 4 though.

3. The 9s.
Neither Collier or Branden Dawson have three point shots. Collier has a 1.37x assist while Dawson has a 1.7 block/steal composite. Branden is slated for 2013 draft. Both are Fad Kids, although I quite like their scores. I might take collier early. Branden is a freshman too!

4. The Crazy 8s
Otto Porter has probably the second best freshman WS40, 2013 draft. Strange how branden didn’t just join the draft early eh? Prolly the lack of a shot.

Chris Johnson is a senior. 6 feet 3 but with a 6 ‘ 11 reach. Intriguing enough to create a chart.
Placeholder

If we place 3 point shooting ability as a priority, and then place their PRAWS40 next, and put in the Defensive stats, we get a better picture!

. Name avg POS avg 3Pt avg 3PtA avg 3P% avg PRAWS40 avg TOs avg PFs avg Off avg Def avg Asts avg Stls avg Blks
. Kim English 2.50 2.70 5.80 45.90 7.51 2.00 3 1.00 4.00 1.90 1.50 0.30
. Chace Stanback 3.50 3.40 7.40 45.50 6.43 1.60 3 1.60 4.70 1.80 1.40 0.50
. John Shurna 3.50 3.10 7.00 44.00 7.78 1.70 2 1.60 4.20 3.00 1.30 1.80
. Hollis Thompson 3.00 2.30 5.30 43.00 5.84 2.10 3 1.70 5.40 1.90 0.90 0.60
. Travis Wear 3.50 0.20 0.40 42.90 7.68 1.70 4 4.40 4.70 0.70 1.10 1.80
. Jeffery Taylor 3.00 2.30 5.40 42.30 7.54 2.70 2 2.70 4.30 2.10 1.60 0.60
. Dominique Morrison 3.00 1.80 4.20 42.30 6.19 1.80 3 1.10 3.60 1.80 0.90 0.40
. Elias Harris 3.50 1.20 2.90 41.40 8.28 2.40 3 3.00 8.80 1.70 1.30 1.00
. Lamar Patterson 3.00 1.60 3.80 41.00 7.04 2.40 3 2.30 5.10 5.10 1.40 0.50
. Allen Crabbe 3.00 2.90 7.20 39.90 6.29 1.80 2 1.10 5.60 2.50 0.60 0.70
. Chris Johnson 3.00 2.90 7.30 39.70 8.79 2.10 3 3.40 5.20 1.80 1.00 0.80
. Solomon Hill 3.00 1.30 3.40 38.90 8.09 3.00 3 2.70 6.90 3.20 1.30 0.60
. Robbie Hummel 3.50 2.60 6.70 38.30 6.98 1.10 3 2.00 7.00 2.30 0.80 1.50
. Reggie Bullock 3.00 2.90 7.70 38.20 7.34 1.60 2 2.60 5.40 2.20 1.00 0.30
. Travis McKie 3.00 1.20 3.30 37.90 6.09 2.80 3 2.60 5.50 1.30 1.00 0.70
. Dezmine Wells 3.00 1.00 2.50 37.70 5.84 2.00 3 1.80 5.70 1.70 1.10 0.40
. Tony Mitchell 3.50 1.20 3.35 37.50 8.13 3.10 4 2.80 8.80 2.20 1.25 2.95
. Terrence Ross 2.50 2.60 7.10 37.10 7.06 2.60 4 1.80 6.50 1.80 1.60 1.20
. Wesley Witherspoon 3.00 1.30 3.50 36.50 5.84 2.30 5 1.90 4.70 1.90 2.60 0.80
. Wendell McKines 3.50 1.70 4.90 35.20 8.48 2.40 3 4.00 8.70 1.80 0.90 0.40
. Quincy Miller 3.00 1.10 3.10 34.80 5.69 2.90 3 2.40 5.70 2.30 1.10 1.10
. Will Barton 2.50 1.20 3.50 34.60 9.91 2.40 2 2.30 6.80 3.30 1.60 0.80
. Jae Crowder 3.50 2.10 6.10 34.50 11.38 1.50 3 2.40 7.80 2.50 3.10 1.20
. Deshaun Thomas 3.50 1.60 4.70 34.50 8.13 1.50 2 3.30 3.60 1.10 1.40 1.30
. Kris Joseph 3.00 1.70 5.00 34.50 5.84 1.80 2 1.90 4.00 1.90 1.70 0.80
. Alex Young 3.00 2.20 6.60 33.90 6.44 3.00 3 2.20 5.00 2.60 1.90 1.20
. Jerry Brown 2.50 0.00 0.10 33.30 5.86 1.80 4 2.90 4.30 1.20 1.40 1.10
. Terrence Jones 3.50 0.60 1.80 32.70 7.68 2.20 3 3.40 6.30 1.80 1.80 2.40
. Jamar Samuels 3.50 0.90 2.80 32.70 5.88 2.70 5 4.10 5.90 2.10 1.40 1.10
. Ken Horton 3.50 1.90 6.10 31.30 10.38 2.20 3 3.20 7.20 2.00 2.40 1.70

Basically Shurna, Chris Johnson, HUmmel, Terrence Ross, Tony Mitchell, Terrence Jones all have individual problems despite a solid 3.
Barton, Crowder, Horton are all solid efficient defensive perimeter small forwards.

If I had to choose, I would pick Tony Mitchell from the B group as Turnovers are his major issue. Or go with Chris Johnson and ask him why his blocks are so low.

Wendell Mckines also deserves a gander.

2012 Shooting Guards Palooza

Before we head further, I’d like to explain 3 things.

1. PAWS40 is a stat about 9 box scores. I’ve recently changed it PAWS40 II to reflect the lower value defensive rebounds should have.

2. Average NBA level players are now 6 PAWS40 II instead of 10 PAWS40

3. Marshon Brooks was a 9, as was Alec Burks, so keep that in mind. They are producing bench type numbers. Shooting is the stat that’s wildly unpredictable. Out of all the positions, shooting guard is the worst to pick for. In fact, signing up as a shooting guard lowers your draft chances by like some absurd number.

4. Because shooting guards require defensive ability, I’m going to make a quick and dirty composite blocks/steal score and compare it to the positional league average. For example, shooting guards usually block 1.0 shots per 40 minutes. Why are you only blocking .5!

. Name 2011. PAWS40 2010. PAWS40 avg POS FT% 2011 FT%.2010 2yearpaws Rank
. Marcus Denmon 10.03 10.38 2.00 89.60 75.80 10.20 1
. Orlando Johnson 7.83 9.18 2.00 69.80 80.40 8.50 2
. Bradley Beal 8.13 NA 2.00 76.90 NA 8.13 3
. John Jenkins 8.38 7.53 2.00 83.70 89.40 7.95 4
. Kyle Kuric 5.88 9.03 2.00 79.10 75.80 7.45 5
. Jeremy Lamb 7.18 7.53 2.00 81.00 79.70 7.35 6
. Will Barton 9.91 4.66 2.50 74.90 69.90 7.28 7
. Terrence Ross 7.06 NA 2.50 76.60 NA 7.06 8
. Sean Kilpatrick 7.03 6.98 2.00 75.00 72.20 7.00 9
. Jared Cunningham 6.78 7.23 2.00 73.70 77.90 7.00 10
. Sheldon McClellan 6.68 NA 2.00 75.60 NA 6.68 11
. Victor Oladipo 6.61 NA 2.50 75.00 NA 6.61 12
. C.J. Wilcox 6.58 NA 2.00 83.90 NA 6.58 13
. Drew Crawford 7.43 5.33 2.00 70.40 71.40 6.38 14
. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 6.18 NA 2.00 65.40 NA 6.18 15
. Trent Lockett 5.93 6.08 2.00 71.10 66.20 6.00 16
. Jerry Brown 5.86 NA 2.50 67.40 NA 5.86 17
. Doron Lamb 6.08 5.48 2.00 82.60 79.00 5.78 18
. Charlie Westbrook 6.33 4.93 2.00 76.60 67.90 5.63 19
. Keala King 5.63 NA 2.00 67.60 NA 5.63 20
. William Buford 5.03 5.78 2.00 83.20 84.30 5.40 21
. Kim English 7.51 3.16 2.50 72.50 72.60 5.33 22
. Vander Blue 5.23 NA 2.00 70.80 NA 5.23 23
. Dominic Cheek 5.08 NA 2.00 80.40 NA 5.08 24
. Dion Dixon 4.23 5.83 2.00 69.90 76.20 5.03 25
. TyShwan Edmondson 3.83 6.18 2.00 75.00 74.50 5.00 26
. Andre Dawkins 3.73 6.03 2.00 73.90 79.10 4.88 27
. Sean Mosley 5.43 4.23 2.00 83.50 76.60 4.83 28
. Darius Johnson-Odom 5.43 4.13 2.00 76.40 70.80 4.78 29

Lottery Teams 2, 3, 4, and 5 need shooting. Bobcats, Wizards, Cleveland and Sacramento. Bobcats need everything so who knows who’ll they pick.

Most Pundited: Bradley Beal

1. Marcus Denmon

He’s the safe pick. But 1 point above Alec Burks isn’t too awesome. But having two consecutive 10+ years is great. FT% has improved. The only reason why Bradley Beal is such hot stuff is because Bradley has an 8 right off the bat. Denmon was a 4 with freshman minutes and a 6 as a sophomore. The streets are paved with Bradley Beals that never lived up to their potential. One and doners. sigh. He had a bad combine this morning–didn’t shoot well. Betya he’s going to be more productive his first year than Bradley though. Kindah hard to be a short shooting guard though. Good luck Denmon.

1.8 STL40, 0 BLK40(look the guy is 6 feet. If he had more blocks i’d be championing Denmon but alas, life is unfair and tall.)

2. Bradley Beal, Terrence Ross, Jeremy Lamb(Fad Kids – young kids with good freshman/sophomore years)

Bradley Beal

Freshman extraordinaire. No one remind the GMs of the large variance shooting guards have. You know, what I call freshman scoring guards with great scores? Fishbait. Think about it. They can shoot. They can dribble. They can pass. Why don’t they go play point guard? Because to learn how to point guard, you got to learn how to pass. To learn how to pass, you’ll be a turnover king. There’s a reason why I don’t include the freshman years of players who play bench. Well, he’s gonna get a payday so I guess he knows what he’s doing. Anyways. Everyone’s got Russel Westbrook fever or something.

1.6 STL40, 1 BLK40 (Blah.)

Terrence Ross

I think he’s better than Beal in some ways. He took a year to learn on the bench. Then came out with a strong sophomore year. It’ll be easier to teach him than someone who never hit a rookie wall

1.3 STL40, .9 BLK ( hah, same as Orlando Johnson. Orlando has a much better wingspan though. 6’11 vs 6’7, hrm. Again, I’m biased against Fad Kids.)

Jeremy Lamb

How’s he different from Beal? Oh yeah, he regressed from a good freshman year! If he had went to the draft last year, he’d be Beal. He’s 6 feet 5 at least.

Oh wait, he’s got 1.3STL/.9BLK, the same as his peers who are shorter than him and less long. If it werent’ for the draft, he’d have time to work on his passing. This is why the NBA has a shortage of point guards. I don’t blame him. I blame the NBA.

4. Outliers…

Oh. what do we have here? Will Barton? Fabulous numbers? check. Tremendous improvement from a shoddy start. Check. FT% improvement. Check.

I like this guy. But…1.6STL/.8BLK for a 6’6 guy seems strange dontcha think? Anyways. 9+ rating means he’s a better buy Bradley or the Lambs. But he could also be an Orlando Johnson and regress.AND his reach is less than Orlando Johson.

Conclusions:

I know Beal is the top prospect but if I was a gambler (and that’s what the draft is) , I’d pick Denmon. Or Orlando Johnson. With Orlando, you can at least fall back on making him a danny green or sefolosha (a lockdown defender spot up 3 shooter). With Denmon, he’s got a proven track consecutive years of success + his steals are pretty high.

But the dark horse is JAE CROWDER. The Jack OF ALL TRADES wants to be a shooting guard. I don’t want to give away my feelings of adoration for this man’s stats but this guy is REALLY good.

But that’s for next time since he’s in the Small Forward section.

Until Next Time, stay toothy toothfairy.

UPDATE:

  • John Jenkins might declare for draft.
. Name avg POS Rk. %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40 2011 PRAWS40 2YR AVERAGE
. John Jenkins 2  4 1.43 1.33 1.20 1.12 0.79 0.70 1.13 2.29 1.86 1.26 1.29 1.10 1.14 0.40 0.75 0.66 0.55 0.68 0.94 0.71 0.55 2.04 1.70 8.38 9.09

So let’s begin with the stats. [%avg Pts] – % of Points You’ve Scored Higher Than The Average 2-Guard.

Jenkins Scored 43% more points. He’s a high usage, high efficiency(12%+) player who makes his living on the three point line. He makes 4 out of every 10 TREYS. (Top 5 3pt shooting 2guard) He tends to avoid the paint despite fielding 13% better efficacy rates. He gets to the free throw line 30% more and he is a 10% better at making those freebies. 80%+ FT shooter bodes well for his stroke. Steals, Assists, and Blocks are underwhelming and below average. As are his rebounds.

He’s a junior. So ‘upsides’, if I believed in that sort of thing.

He’s 6’4 with a wingspan of 6’8.

Bradley is still to clear cut favorite but his stroke is not as wet as Jenkins even though Bradley’s defensive acumen is MUCH MUCH better.

I hate to say it but Beal does deserve top mentions.

But Marcus Denmon, Orlando, John Jenkins and Will Barton are no pushovers.

If I had to pick, with an eye on scoring and defense. I pick Will Barton. Here is the matrix for the decision.

Name avg POS ID %avg Pts %avg FG %avg FGA %avg FG% %avg 2Pt %avg 2PtA %avg 2P% %avg 3Pt %avg 3PtA %avg 3P% %avg FTM %avg FTA %avg FT% %avg Off %avg Def %avg TOT %avg Asts %avg Stls %avg Blks %avg TOs %avg PFs %avg RAWS40 %avg PRAWS40 2011 PRAWS40 2YR AVERAGE
. Marcus Denmon 2.00 MD 1.23 1.19 1.10 1.08 0.93 0.85 1.09 1.65 1.43 1.17 1.18 0.93 1.22 0.95 1.22 1.13 0.95 1.23 0.00 0.52 0.43 2.53 2.03 10.03 10.20
. Orlando Johnson 2.00 OJ 1.39 1.40 1.32 1.06 1.43 1.49 0.97 1.30 1.09 1.23 1.41 1.44 0.95 1.51 1.24 1.33 1.34 0.89 2.12 1.04 0.83 1.87 1.59 7.83 8.50
. Bradley Beal 2.00 BB 1.04 0.99 0.95 1.05 0.98 0.87 1.13 1.00 1.05 0.97 1.24 1.17 1.05 1.27 1.63 1.54 1.03 1.09 2.36 0.93 0.95 1.96 1.65 8.13 8.13
. John Jenkins 2.00 JJ 1.43 1.33 1.20 1.12 0.79 0.70 1.13 2.29 1.86 1.26 1.29 1.10 1.14 0.40 0.75 0.66 0.55 0.68 0.94 0.71 0.55 2.04 1.70 8.38 7.95
. Will Barton 2.50 WB 1.20 1.25 1.09 1.15 1.47 1.28 1.16 0.71 0.75 1.00 1.24 1.21 1.03 1.49 1.46 1.46 1.34 1.22 1.33 0.93 0.80 2.27 1.96 9.91 7.28
. Winner JJ,OJ OJ,JJ OJ,JJ WB,JJ WB,OJ OJ,WB WB,KK JJ,MD JJ,MD JJ,OJ OJ,JJ OJ,BB MD,JJ OJ,WB BB,WB BB,WB OJ,WB MD,JJ BB,OJ MD,JJ MD,JJ MD MD,WB MD
. Loser BB BB BB BB JJ JJ OJ WB,BB WB,BB BB,WB  MD  MD OJ,WB JJ,MD JJ JJ JJ JJ MD OJ BB  OJ OJ WB

As much as Denmon and JJ are an offensive power-house, there are just as much as a liability defensively. Bradley Beal maybe the top pick just in that aspect but his scoring is raw. His FT% shows he might grow an offensive game.

Will Barton and Orlando Johnson are a right mixture of everything.  With a few caveats. Orlando’s 2pt efficiency as well as his FT% is suspect yet has a competitive 3pt ability. Will Barton’s only problem is his 3pt shooting and FT rate.

It’s really a toss up between OJ and WB.

2012 Point Guard Palooza

Point Guard List. I’ve also added combo guards to it.

Before we head further, I’d like to explain 3 things.

1. PAWS40 is a stat about 9 box scores. I’ve recently changed it to reflect the lower value defensive rebounds should have.

2. Average NBA level players are now 6 PAWS40 instead of 10 PAWS40

3. Kemba Walker is a 7.5, so keep that in mind of what an average player is.

Name  2011.PAWS40  2010.PAWS40  POS  FT% 2011  FT%.2010  AVG PAWS40  Rank
C.J. McCollum 10.00 7.95 1.50 81.10 84.50 8.98 1
Damian Lillard 10.28 7.03 1.00 88.70 85.70 8.65 2
Jesse Sanders 10.68 6.43 1.00 78.50 75.60 8.55 3
Langston Galloway 7.75 7.70 1.50 78.50 88.70 7.73 4
Nate Wolters 7.28 7.83 1.00 78.30 79.60 7.55 5
Dion Waiters 7.45 NA 1.50 72.90 NA 7.45 6
Reggie Hamilton 7.88 6.83 1.00 87.60 83.90 7.35 7
Michael Dixon 7.35 6.75 1.50 87.90 82.50 7.05 8
Bj Young 6.90 NA 1.50 74.30 NA 6.90 9
Phl Pressey 6.58 NA 1.00 77.50 NA 6.58 10
Scott Machado 8.98 4.13 1.00 81.10 67.50 6.55 11
Matthew Dellavedova 6.30 6.40 1.50 85.70 88.10 6.35 12
Tu Holloway 5.58 6.88 1.00 86.20 87.00 6.23 13
Hugh Greenwood 6.20 NA 1.50 69.40 NA 6.20 14
Kendrick Perry 7.43 4.88 1.00 70.60 67.60 6.15 15
Aaron Craft 6.78 5.53 1.00 71.30 72.70 6.15 16
Ray McCallum 6.18 6.13 1.00 76.60 69.10 6.15 17
Isaiah Canaan 8.20 4.00 1.50 83.70 74.40 6.10 18

1. CJ McCollum

is going back to school. Which is a shame. He is by far the best pg/sg  out there. For some reason, he promised his mother he would grab his journalism degree before making millions of dollars.

2. Damian Willard.

Sacramento 5th pick, Blazers 6th and the Hornets 10th have a need for a PG. He’s shown that he can shoot from range. A great 85% FreeThrow so if anything he can barrel in and grab some fouls.

Cons: He’s one of the lowest rank assist PGs in his class, however. At the end of the day, you want buckets. And value. Last I heard, Ty Lawson was pretty good.

3. Jesse Sanders

He’s had a phenomenal senior year. His other years are also above average. He’s got a weakfish 75% free throw average but I think so did Lin.

Unfortunately he’s got very low steals and blocks–below average for his position so don’t expect tony allen. Here’s a far more detailed report on him.

I think he’ll be good. Not kryie Irving( 11-12 PAWS40), but pretty good.

4. The 7 PAWS crowd.

Galloway, Wolters, Waiters, Hamilton, Dixon

I don’t know much about them other than the fact that Waiters has already declared himself for the draft. He played less than 20 minutes in his freshman year so the chart above doesn’t have his 2010 data. It usually means he’s done poorly. A quick calculation shows a 5.6 paws. Slightly below average. I like Galloway and Dixon though. Improvement year to year plus historically good free throw shooting.

5. The Exceptions

If you like gambling, you’ll like Machado. One breakout year. You’re effectively betting on ONE breakout year.

Machado and Canaan. Machado went to Brazil. Came back and became a Monster. Because he was not hot stuff his first couple of years. Supposedly he’s much fitter now. But it’s hard to argue with his score.  He went from a 60% free throw % to a monster 80%.

Canaan’s going back to school. Someone obviously told him that he can’t possibly grab a spot this year. He probably can’t. But he’s a great tiny shooter.

That’s it for the Point Guards of 2012.

Next week I’ll be doing the Shooting Guards of 2012. Stay tuned, toothslayers!

Reference:

List of Lottery Teams