-Metrics And How To Calculate

Here is the link to see the Win Score math

It basically takes 9 of the box score stats and boils it down to one number. I prefer to use the Per 40 minutes data.

I use Google Docs to collect the data from draftexpress.com and push out the raw WS40 data.

Please disregard the averages and the formula. It has since been updated. 

Here is the link to the updated math. (You can probably ignore everything else and just read this one. But since it’s based on the Win Score v1.0, you may have to read the other links on this post to understand where the stat is coming from.)

Here is the link to turn it into Position Adjusted Win Score

Here’s the math that I use for everything.

 Win score = PTS + OREB + 1/2* DREB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF

Things that help a WS: Points, Rebounds, Steals, Blocks, Assists
Things that hurt a WS: Field Goal Attempts, Turnovers, Personal Fouls
I don’t know why free throw attempts hurt a win score but that’s what they have on the site.
Paws = (PlayerWS-PosAVgWS) +AvgWS
[Player’s Win Score as calculated by me.
minus
Positional Average Win Score as calculated by wagesofwins through years of data and averaged.( Save me a lot of work.)
+ Average Win Score of the NCAA league in general across multiple positions as calculated by wagesofwins.]

NCAA 2010-2011 RAWS48 Averages

Centers: 7.846

Power Forwards: 6.956

Small Forwards: 4.835

Shooting Guards: 4.104

Point Guards: 4.851

Overall Average: 5.729

The NBA average PAWS48 is 6. But I like to peg last year’s disappointments as cutoff marks for analysis. Kemba Walker was a 7.5, etc. etc.

I should really be comparing NBA Draft Prospects to AVERAGE NBA WS Score! James Brocato of wagesofwins.com gave me his results.

NBA 1996-2011 SPRAWS48 Averages

(SPRAWS = Schedule Strength, Position, and Rebound Adjusted Win Score)

PG: 5.7799

SG: 6.1266

SF: 6.9245

PF: 8.6353

C: 8.2832

Overall Avg: 7.1819

Because Draftexpress.com has data in Per 40 min. instead of the per 48, it’s important to add  [1+ (8/48) ] to the base stats. Or 16.6% to each base stat. Or you can just skip that and add .3 to everyone’s PAWS40 score. I’m just going to use the WS40 data but remember to convert it to PRAWS48 before you convert to PRAWS48. 🙂

PRAWS40*1.166 = PRAWS48

WP48 = -0.07898 + 0.031888*PRAWS48

Yes yes. confusing. It’s not my fault Draft Express doesn’t give stats in per 48.

Please twitter bballpants if this post is too confusing.

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