How did my Predictions For the 2012 Draft Do?

Here’s my old predictions

  1. Hornets: PICK 1, PICK 10 (most likely trade pick#10)
    Anthony Davis, Lillard, Waiters
    .
    Actual: Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers
    I was right about the fact that they were gonna grab a PG. Waiters and Lillard were both taken so…eh.
    .
  2. Bobcats: PICK 2
    Beal
    .
    Actual: MKG
    Rob Cho. I thought he might be analytical and use numbers…Ah well. I was totally wrong here.
    .
  3. Wizards: PICK 3
    Barnes – Because the Wizards don’t care about boxscore production.
    .
    Actual: Beal
    Wow, kudos to the Wizards. They are usually morons.
    .
  4. Cavaliers: PICK 4
    T. Robinson – Because the Cavs like picking people that have upsides but are slightly below average.
    .
    Actual Pick: Dion Waiters.
    No friggin way. Young with upsides, and slightly above average. I wonder if Kyrie Irving’s injuries are more serious than first surmised…
    .
  5. Kings – PICK 5
    Henson – Henson is friends with one of the NBA Kings’ player. Technically it shouldnt be henson but some  average player that can play the 3 for the Kings. Sullinger maybe. I don’t know about this one. Henson is actually a pretty good pick.
    .
    Actual: Thomas Robinson
    Eh. Once you get the first 4 picks wrong, the rest are gonna be bad. I blame the Cavs. Seriously? Dion Waiters?
    .
  6.  Blazers – PICK 6, PICK 11
    Michael Kidd Gilchrist or Damien Lillard. I think they’ll pick Lillard up first. But it could aslo be MKG. 
    .
    Actual: Damian Lillard
    Finally got one right.
    .
  7. The Warriors – PICK 7
    just got Bogut (PF/C) but he’s injury prone. Just like everyone on that stupid team. If they are smart, they’ll get Will Barton. If they are getting what they need, they’ll get Zeller. I think they’ll be getting Zeller.
    .
    Actual: Barnes
    I was totally off the mark.
    .
  8.  Raptors – PICK 8
    The data says Terrence Jones but my heart says they’ll pick up Lillard or MKG. Their choice depends on the Blazers. I don’t think they’ll get Waiters, despite the rumors.
    .
    Actual: Terrence Ross.
    I may have gotten my Terrences mixed up. Eh. I’ll say I missed it.
    .
  9. *Detroit– PICK 9
    Drummond – The Kings in Pick 5 might get Drummond (that Kings GM guy loves to gamble). But I think he’ll fall to Detroit. Because Detroit loves underperforming picks. A lot.
    .
    Actual: Drummond
    Goold old Detroit. You can always depend on them to make the wrong move.
    .
  10. *Hornets – Pick 10
    Lillard, Waiters
    .
    Actual: Austin Rivers.
    Lillard, Waiters were taken, so they got Rivers. Eh. I give myself a half mark.
    .
  11. *Pick 13 Goes the Suns
    Waiters or Marshall
    .
    Actual: Kendall Marshall
    Wheee!
    .
  12. Pick 12 goes to the Rockets. Pick 14 goes to the Bucks. I predicte PJ3 for Bucks.
    .
    Actual: Rockets got Lamb.  Morey is a -.94 on the SmartyScore. Lamb is a +.35. Sigh.
    Acutal: Bucks get John Henson. Meniscus tear for PJ3. Eh. I wouldn’t have picked Henson anyways. Henson is actually good . I’d thought Hammond might be an idiot and pick Meyers or Fab. But he just traded for the Dalembert Center. I pegged Henson to be higher on the draft list anyways.
    .
    I was completely wrong.

I just got rocked.

  PIck Actual Predicted POS Team                        
1 Anthony Davis Anthony Davis PF New Orleans Hornets                        
2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Beal SF Charlotte Bobcats                        
  3 Bradley Beal Barnes SG Washington Wizards                        
  4 Dion Waiters Thomas Robinson SG Cleveland Cavaliers                        
  5 Thomas Robinson Henson PF Sacramento Kings                        
  6 Damian Lillard Damian Lillard PG Portland Trail Blazers                         
  7 Barnes Zeller, Meyers SF Golden State Warriors                        
  8 Terrence Ross Terrence Jones SG Toronto Raptors                        
  9 Andre Drummond Andre Drummond C Detroit Pistons                        
  10 Austin Rivers Dion Waiters, Lillard PG New Orleans Hornets                        
  11 Meyers Leonard x C Portland Trail Blazers                        
  12 Jeremy Lamb x SG Houston Rockets                         
  13 Kendall Marshall Kendall Marshall PG Phoenix Suns

I was wrong about Henson and Zeller being in the top 13. I’d thought the lack of a center would push zeller up despite his age. I guess the top drafts are always young and average.  I was only right about 4 of the top 13. Very bad showing. At least Henson was pick 14…

Next year, i’m making a list of the young and average as that seems to be the only list worth a toot to most GMs. I should have known that Terrence Ross might get picked up because of the UCONN connection.

Good old predictable Detroit Pistons. You obviously knew that they were going to pick someone unworthy. Their GM gambles with picks constantly.

I’ll have to fiddle with my prediction model a little. Add in some hype factors as well as the fact that the Cavaliers are generally out of their mind.

30% prediction rate is baaaaaad.

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2012 Draft is a Shallow Draft! Move up, guys. Move up!

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If it’s such a deep draft why are the Bucks and the Houston Rockets looking to move up?

Here’s the research I did a month ago on the positional averages for the last two seaasons.

*20minutes, 10games+ playing time

 POS  AVG  2010 RAWS40 2011 RAWS40
. 1.0 3.941 4.068 3.813
. 1.5 4.012 3.785 4.238
. 2.0 3.592 3.870 3.314
. 2.5 3.900 3.992 3.808
. 3.0 5.346 5.581 5.111
. 3.5 6.572 6.735 6.410
. 4.0 7.138 7.094 7.181
. 4.5 7.796 7.712 7.880
. 5.0 7.324 7.890 6.758
. POS 2010RAWS40 2011RAWS40
. NCAA AVERAGE 5.513 5.636 5.390
. avg POS avg(2YR.RAWS40) avg RAWS40 across all positions

See the difference? Let’s dissect Point Guards. The average Point guard in 2010 had an average RAWS40 of 4.068. Kryie Irving was in that draft so yeah. But it wasn’t just Kyrie Irving. There was:

Kyrie Iriving, Norris Cole, Kemba Walker, Fredette, All

Season 10′  highest WS40 point guards.
I left out the ones that went undrafted. Like Derwin Kitchen (8.73 RAWS40) He’ll be 26 in 2012!

In any case, the strength of the 2010 class was bolstered heavily by Kyrie Irving. Check the chart below.

*A PRAWS40 of 7 is an Avg NBA Player. For example, Kyrie Irving is 11 so he would be a + 4

Name 2010
PRAWS40
 2010 2011 WP48 WP48 Translation 
. Kyrie Irving 11.13  Drafted. .119  Starter
. Norris Cole 8.03  Drafted. -.108 Super Scrub
. C.J. McCollum 7.58  Nope. Nope.  NA 2012 PRAWS40: 10.0 3+ Better than NBA Bench
. Kemba Walker 7.53  Drafted  .011  Scrub
. Jimmer Fredette 7.23  Drafted  -.065  Scrub+
. Iman Shumpert 7.18  Drafted  .5  Bench
. Damian Lillard 7.03     (In NCAA ’11, he has jumped up to 10.3 PRAWS40)

….
Kyrie Irving is a +4. Norris is a +1.

Everyone else is a fraction over the NBA average. Not very good man. Not very good at all. The only person who did well was the person who didn’t need to play point guard due to a freak Lin Accident.(Shumpert!)

Of course, you need a full four years before you can fully tell whether a rookie is good or not. Still, if you have just 3 years to make use of a first round pick…why wouldn’t you pick the +3s and +4s? So you don’t have to waste that first year training them?

In any case, I’ve stablished that the 2010 crop of point guards isn’t up to WS40 standards.

How does 2011 fare?

The Average PRAWS40 score is a full .20 less. That doesn’t seem like much so let’s create the top PG list again for NCAA ’11.

Name 2011 PRAWS40
. Damian Lillard 10.28 +3
. Jesse Sanders 10.68 +3
. Nate Wolters 7.28  0
. Reggie Hamilton 7.88  0
. Phl Pressey 6.58  -1
. Scott Machado 8.98  +2
. Tu Holloway 5.58  -2
. Kendrick Perry 7.43  +1
. Aaron Craft 6.78  +1
. Ray McCallum 6.18  -1
. Pierre Jackson 6.03  -1
. Jordan Taylor 4.98  -2
. Kevin Pangos 5.88  -1
. Kendall Marshall 6.58  <—LOOK! Average!

.

We’ve got Two Seniors with +3s , two with 0s, and the rest are -1. Yes, the talent pool has shrunk. That’s with a 2 tenths decrease.

Let’s see the decrease per positions.

 POS  DELTA ’10/’11  2010 RAWS40 2011 RAWS40
. 1.0 -.2 4.068 3.813
. 1.5 +.5 3.785 4.238
. 2.0 -.5 3.870 3.314
. 2.5    -.2  3.992 3.808
. 3.0           -.4  5.581 5.111
. 3.5           -.3         6.735        6.410
. 4.0           +.1         7.094        7.181
. 4.5 +.1 7.712 7.880
. 5.0 -1.1 7.890 6.758

Why would anyone think that this draft is deep?
The 2010 NCAA is  on average .3 tenths of a point worse than 2011!

I won’t bore you with the charts on the combo guards which saw a huge gain and the power forward list which saw a nominal one. Here are the conclusions.

  • Pure point guards. There are no Kyrie Irving who was young and a +4. Our two best PGs are seniors AND +3s. Last year they were 0s. It would be good to revisit them and see if their careers map accordingly. If Lillard gets drafted, he might produce the same as say Kemba Walker in 2012-2013. That would be a nice experiment.
  • Combo Guards.
    C.J. McCollum happened. He’s now a junior with a +3. As young and good goes, he’s a great bet. Too bad he’s not in the draft. Aside from him we’ve got 4 or 5 0’s, and  a def. +1. Many of them aren’t in the draft. “Too crowded with people that don’t belong there”. Last year’s list had more +0’s though. But their highes was Old Man Kitchen with a +2.
  • There are 7 NBA quality SGs in 2011.
    There were 12 NBA quality SG in 2010.
  • There are 14 SF, shooter SFs in 2011. (7 are +1 or greater)
    There were  17 in 2010 (10 are +1 or greater)
  • The small forward/power forward position is just ridiculous. Sample is so small I shouldn’t even have wasted my time.
  • Power Forwards have traditionally been the most productive. And with Anthony Davis in this sample, raising the bar by .1 to .2 is actually quite a feat.
  • The Center situation is the most alarming. There really isn’t a big man. If the Bucks want a competent center. They shouldn’t even be looking at the draft this year. There just isn’t any good ones. There were 6 +1s last year. There are only Three this year. Cody Zeller isn’t in the draft. Sullinger is short and has a back injury. What the Bucks are looking for is Miles Plumlee and Tyler Zeller. But I just did the Bucks’ GM SmartyScore and if I’m right, their probably going to pick someone with a -1 like Meyers Leanord or Fab Melo. If they climb up the draft, that logic changes. They normally gamble anyways, the higher the pick the higher the reward. Doesn’t mean they still aren’t unwise wasteful gamblers.

Hopefully I’ve established the fact that this really isn’t a deep draft. Anything past pick 10 will probably hit dirt.

That explains why picks 12 and 14 (Bucks, rockets) are so eager to move up.

This research was done a month ago! I can’t believe it’s still useful. Score!

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OLD POST based on WS40 v1.0

Name avg Team fullpaws40 Hire Me!
Anthony Davis 4 17.53 Freshman
Arsalan Kazemi 4 14.68 Hire Me!
William Mosley 4.5 13.465 Hire Me!
Andre Roberson 4 13.455 Hire Me!
C.J. McCollum 1.5 13.22 Hire Me!
Jesse Sanders 1 13.02 Hire Me!
Damian Lillard 1 13.02 Hire Me!
Ken Horton 3.5 12.95 Hire Me!
Kyle O’Quinn 4.5 12.94 Hire Me!
Jae Crowder 3.5 12.825 Hire Me!
Jack Cooley 4.5 12.665 Hire Me!
Trevor Mbakwe 4.5 12.615 Hire Me!
Jared Sullinger 5 12.325 Hire Me!
Marcus Denmon 2 12.295 Hire Me!
Thomas Robinson 4 12.18 Hire Me!
Julian Boyd 4 12.105 Hire Me!
John Henson 4 12.105 Hire Me!
Tyler Zeller 5 12.05 Freshman
Eli Holman 4.5 12.015 Hire Me!

This is the top PAWS40 for the last 2 season of the NCAA.

PAWS40 :(insert Link to wagesofwin.com)

10 is the average NBA WS.

Ooh, just looking at this list gives me a headache. Turns out I didn’t account for the fact that some of the stars didn’t play a lot of minutes their freshman year. I’m gonna have to rejigger the thresholds a bit.