NBA November News!

The new NBA season starts off with a bang.

Every month (or week, depending on the news), I’ll post the most interesting things that I think aren’t discussed.

Some surprising things.

Each POINT will have a follow up idea.

POINT 1: NYK. Wages of Wins placed New York ahead of everyone in the east in their projections. Small sample size but judging by the initial New York dominance, their projections seem to be spot on. But the Knicks were so dysfunctional last year! What happened?

Turns out, Ronnie Brewer is really really good. I SQLed >.150WP48 pure shooting guards, required them play at least 1400 minutes, while still being available for the 2012-13 season.

Here is the list of shooting guards ranked by their tiers.

Always consistent GREAT: Wade, Brewer

Mostly RECENTLY consistent GREAT: Thabo Sefolosha, Ray Allen, Mike Dunleavy, Harden, Landry Fields.

Stopped BEING CONSISTENTLY GREAT A LONG TIME AGO: Kobe, Brandon Roy, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, Manu Ginobili

CONSISTENTLY GOOD ENOUGH GUYS: JJ Reddick, Jason Richardson, Delonte West, Keith Bogans

NEW AND GREAT: Harden, Landry Fields


*You can do what I did by grabbing the data here.*

So by grabbing Jason Kidd, Felton and Prigioni, they’ve got ample production at the PG spot through all 48 minutes of the game, unlike last year where the dropoff from Lin to Bibby was painfully apparent.

Brewer and JR SMith at shooting guard means consistent production as well. Brewer, from my data, has been good for the past 4 years. Obviously he isn’t as great as Wade, but he’s just as consistent and PRODUCES in the upper echelon of SGs. And some nights, JR Smith might even show up to play. Cuz he’s random like that.

I haven’t seen the other positions yet but I’m sure Glen Grunwald has filled the roster in the same fashion.

POINT 2: The MAGIC.Why are you making a big deal out of the first few games? Small sample size much? Yes yes.

I know. But it’s interesting to predict stuff. Like how everyone in the world predicted the Magic to lose a lot of games. But it seems the rest of the eastern league has imploded. There’s a lot to be said about chemistry. Maybe Glen Davis’ charm is greater than his girth. Eh. Still, I don’t see how the Magic can keep winning. They just aren’t good.


What a great trade by Morey. Wouldn’t it be cool if someone predicted all this Rockets movement? Oh wait. I did. 6 hours before the actual TRADE.

In the post I wrote that I considered Harden to be a top tier SG in the league. He did take the crown away from Wade last year and the data all points to him having another phenomenal statline this year. I’m bullish. There is a terribly short list of good shooting guards in the league. The cliff that divides Wade and Harden from the rest is a vast chasm.

Shaq and Charles Barkley blame the Princeton Offense for Laker woes. Well, Coach Nick of Bballbreakdown(no relation) posted a great video about it. Go watch it. I feel the same way he does. I love watching the Princeton Offense. It works.


Next Week: Eastern Conference General Manager Draft and Trade Grades!


How did my Predictions For the 2012 Draft Do?

Here’s my old predictions

  1. Hornets: PICK 1, PICK 10 (most likely trade pick#10)
    Anthony Davis, Lillard, Waiters
    Actual: Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers
    I was right about the fact that they were gonna grab a PG. Waiters and Lillard were both taken so…eh.
  2. Bobcats: PICK 2
    Actual: MKG
    Rob Cho. I thought he might be analytical and use numbers…Ah well. I was totally wrong here.
  3. Wizards: PICK 3
    Barnes – Because the Wizards don’t care about boxscore production.
    Actual: Beal
    Wow, kudos to the Wizards. They are usually morons.
  4. Cavaliers: PICK 4
    T. Robinson – Because the Cavs like picking people that have upsides but are slightly below average.
    Actual Pick: Dion Waiters.
    No friggin way. Young with upsides, and slightly above average. I wonder if Kyrie Irving’s injuries are more serious than first surmised…
  5. Kings – PICK 5
    Henson – Henson is friends with one of the NBA Kings’ player. Technically it shouldnt be henson but some  average player that can play the 3 for the Kings. Sullinger maybe. I don’t know about this one. Henson is actually a pretty good pick.
    Actual: Thomas Robinson
    Eh. Once you get the first 4 picks wrong, the rest are gonna be bad. I blame the Cavs. Seriously? Dion Waiters?
  6.  Blazers – PICK 6, PICK 11
    Michael Kidd Gilchrist or Damien Lillard. I think they’ll pick Lillard up first. But it could aslo be MKG. 
    Actual: Damian Lillard
    Finally got one right.
  7. The Warriors – PICK 7
    just got Bogut (PF/C) but he’s injury prone. Just like everyone on that stupid team. If they are smart, they’ll get Will Barton. If they are getting what they need, they’ll get Zeller. I think they’ll be getting Zeller.
    Actual: Barnes
    I was totally off the mark.
  8.  Raptors – PICK 8
    The data says Terrence Jones but my heart says they’ll pick up Lillard or MKG. Their choice depends on the Blazers. I don’t think they’ll get Waiters, despite the rumors.
    Actual: Terrence Ross.
    I may have gotten my Terrences mixed up. Eh. I’ll say I missed it.
  9. *Detroit– PICK 9
    Drummond – The Kings in Pick 5 might get Drummond (that Kings GM guy loves to gamble). But I think he’ll fall to Detroit. Because Detroit loves underperforming picks. A lot.
    Actual: Drummond
    Goold old Detroit. You can always depend on them to make the wrong move.
  10. *Hornets – Pick 10
    Lillard, Waiters
    Actual: Austin Rivers.
    Lillard, Waiters were taken, so they got Rivers. Eh. I give myself a half mark.
  11. *Pick 13 Goes the Suns
    Waiters or Marshall
    Actual: Kendall Marshall
  12. Pick 12 goes to the Rockets. Pick 14 goes to the Bucks. I predicte PJ3 for Bucks.
    Actual: Rockets got Lamb.  Morey is a -.94 on the SmartyScore. Lamb is a +.35. Sigh.
    Acutal: Bucks get John Henson. Meniscus tear for PJ3. Eh. I wouldn’t have picked Henson anyways. Henson is actually good . I’d thought Hammond might be an idiot and pick Meyers or Fab. But he just traded for the Dalembert Center. I pegged Henson to be higher on the draft list anyways.
    I was completely wrong.

I just got rocked.

  PIck Actual Predicted POS Team                        
1 Anthony Davis Anthony Davis PF New Orleans Hornets                        
2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Beal SF Charlotte Bobcats                        
  3 Bradley Beal Barnes SG Washington Wizards                        
  4 Dion Waiters Thomas Robinson SG Cleveland Cavaliers                        
  5 Thomas Robinson Henson PF Sacramento Kings                        
  6 Damian Lillard Damian Lillard PG Portland Trail Blazers                         
  7 Barnes Zeller, Meyers SF Golden State Warriors                        
  8 Terrence Ross Terrence Jones SG Toronto Raptors                        
  9 Andre Drummond Andre Drummond C Detroit Pistons                        
  10 Austin Rivers Dion Waiters, Lillard PG New Orleans Hornets                        
  11 Meyers Leonard x C Portland Trail Blazers                        
  12 Jeremy Lamb x SG Houston Rockets                         
  13 Kendall Marshall Kendall Marshall PG Phoenix Suns

I was wrong about Henson and Zeller being in the top 13. I’d thought the lack of a center would push zeller up despite his age. I guess the top drafts are always young and average.  I was only right about 4 of the top 13. Very bad showing. At least Henson was pick 14…

Next year, i’m making a list of the young and average as that seems to be the only list worth a toot to most GMs. I should have known that Terrence Ross might get picked up because of the UCONN connection.

Good old predictable Detroit Pistons. You obviously knew that they were going to pick someone unworthy. Their GM gambles with picks constantly.

I’ll have to fiddle with my prediction model a little. Add in some hype factors as well as the fact that the Cavaliers are generally out of their mind.

30% prediction rate is baaaaaad.