Rating the NBA GMs Using WS40

Methodology:I will be using Win Score 40, Unadjusted For Position Or Rebounds.

Why? Because I really don’t think 3 or 4 spots that defensive rebounds give you mean much.
It’s a lot of work and Draftexpress already has the WS40 calculated.

Controls?

I will be taking the career average ws40 of each draft as long as they play 20 minutes+ @ 10 Games Played+
Decent sample size is a must for Per Minute stats.

Really Funky Stats

Because I’m a sadist, I’m going to multiply ws40 by 16.6% and say that’s ws48. Then I’m going to turn ws48 into wp48 using the formula given over by wages of wins

Juicy parts first, dull experiment details last. Here we go. Who picks the best Win Score on average?

. IDNO. Team Poomba Interim ws40 POS PAWS40 PONA10 #Chosen
. . Warriors Bob Myers * dec 2011 NA NA #N/A #N/A 0
. . Suns Lance Blanks August 2010 14 4 11.58 1.58 1
. . Nets billy king july 2010 12.55 4.75 10.33 0.33 2
. . Raptors Colangelo Feb 2006 11.75 4.07 10.1 0.1 7
. . Kings Geoff Petrie 1994 9.74 2.94 9.9 -0.1 35
. . Cavs Dave Griffin September 2010 10.78 3.38 9.69 -0.31 4
. . Rockets Daryl Morey May 2007 9.65 3.13 9.06 -0.94 8
. . Bucks John Hammond April 2008 9.56 3.25 8.9 -1.1 10
. . Piston Joe Dumars May 1999 8.76 3 8.72 -1.28 27
. . wizards ernie grunfield june 2003 8.38 2.89 8.56 -1.44 18
. . Bulls Gar Forman May 2009 8.92 3.17 8.55 -1.46 6
X 01 Ex-Pacers Larry Bird 2007 – aug 2012  8.09 2.94 8.24 -1.76 9
. . Blazers Neil Olshey NED NED NED NED NED NED
. . Bobcats Rich Cho NED NED NED NED NED NED
. 01 Pacers K. Pritchard
Donnie Walsh*
Aug 2012 NA NA #N/A #N/A 0

≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈≈

  • POOMBA means the guy in charge of drafting. Interim means when they began and ended their job.
  • POS means the average of positon of the Chosen Ones.
  • PAWS40 normalizes the WS scores so you can compare PGs and C using the same score.
  • PONA10 means the NBA average is 10 and tells you exactly how many points under or over that NBA average you are.
  • # of Chosen is the number of decisions each Poomba has drafted.

Turns out, none of them are any good. Lottery teams are lottery teams because they generally are bad. Most of these guys were hired only recently. Neil Olshey used to be an actor. His stay at the Clippers was really bouncy. How can you attribute the Clippers’ draft choices to him when you don’t know how much power he had? If he had real power, he probably wouldn’t have left!

Bobcats’ Rich Cho was a GM before but he couldnt do anything. He had less than one year in the seat!

The one with a high(er) statistical sample yet chose the highest was the Raptors with a whopping .1 over average. Chances are their going to choose someone average. Man has a penchant for choosing forwards as well.

The Kings love choosing guards and young ones too. Geoff has chosen 35, but half of those I had to throw out because they had only high school stats. NONE of them ever panned out. If I had included them, Geoff would probably have one of the lowest grades by far.

The Cavs are a strange case. Sometimes they choose wisely, but when they choose poorly, it counteracts their good choices. Overall, they’ve become a negative despite having Kyrie Irving.

But the worst of the Bunch is Larry Bird! The wizards and the bulls have drafted new players worse than the wizards with respect to Win Score.

5 Responses to “Rating the NBA GMs Using WS40”

  1. sportsfanatic613 Says:

    I notice that the dates listed for the general managers are for the years in which they began their job with their current team. Shouldn’t their past experiences also be included as this would be an even greater indication if they are good are bad? Ernie Grunfeld was also drafting for Milwaukee and New York. Billy King was drafting for Philadelphia. Geoff Petrie drafted for the Trailblazers and Brian Colangelo drafted for the Suns. Before John Hammond became in charge of the Bucks, he was the assistant to Joe Dumars in Detroit. I doubt that we’ll even know who was actually responsible for the Pistons drafts as Hammond played a great role, but Dumars had the final decision to make. I realize that this is more work for you, but the net result is a better indicator. Looking forward to seeing more. Thank you.

    • bballpants Says:

      Up to a certain point, people began drafting high schoolers. The years before 2000, most of those draft choices were HIGH schoolers. No college stats. Competition is sparse. If they played in d-league, i would put those scores in.

      I thought of including neil olshey’s clippers history but there’s only a tenable proof that THEY were in charge of the program.

      I remember reading that Billy King was veep for Philadelphia but I don’t know if he was directly in charge of the draft. I just wish there was a position called “Head Draft Guy”. If I see an interview or source that Billy King was responsible for this or that draft pick, maybe.

      I just don’t have the reference of responsibility.

      I AM actively looking for more data samples though. I’ll look into Billy, petrie, and colangelo. It’s not the data that’s a lot of work. It’s researching their percentage of responsiblity. It’s a lot easier when the owner HIRES them. You don’t hire someone and not give them any power (unless you’re Paul Allen.)


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